Bitcoin could soon reach its all-time high (ATH).

Kamal531

If these indicators are reliable, Bitcoin could soon reach its all-time high (ATH).

The realization of the upper age range for Bitcoin indicates that holders are starting to sell. This may not necessarily be due to panic but rather a reason for celebration.

Bitcoin has witnessed a frenzied surge in the past five days, rising from $509,000 to $6400, according to AMBCrypto. Long-term BTC holders have not sold their assets yet but are more inclined to HODL.

This pattern is similar to previous cryptocurrency cycles. Additionally, there is compelling evidence to suggest that the bull market has only just begun.

Exploring the Realized Cap UTXO Age Bands

This indicator displays the distribution of the realized cap for a specific age range. The realized cap is the total value of circulating BTC if purchased at the last movement price per coin. Each colored band represents the ratio of the realized cap for the last moving UTXO within the specified period.

The chart summarizes the capital held by short-term and long-term holders. In the latter half of the 2017 bull market, every age range from 3 months to 5 years showed a declining trend.

Similarly, a similar declining trend appeared in 2021. The reason is straightforward— as the price rises, more holders begin to take profits. While this indicator cannot pinpoint when the bull market will end, it is relatively easy to identify when it begins.

Since mid-January, the rapid decline in the 3 to 6 months and 6 to 12 months holder age ranges mirrors the bull markets of 2017 and 2021.

Still a Long Way to Go

In November, the number of active addresses almost reached the highest point in 2021. However, the chart displays a 30-day simple moving average. Despite the price surge, the SMA continues to trend downward.

Historically, active addresses increased alongside prices. Naturally, Bitcoin becomes more popular as its price rises, attracting more users. This is another sign that the upward trend on a higher time frame is just beginning.

The MVRV ratio has reached 2.59, the highest since November 2021. A level of 3.7 would indicate that the bull run has likely ended. As of now, MVRV has enough space and time to climb higher.

Any pullbacks and significant adjustments in this process are welcome. They may represent discounts for Bitcoin. In 2019, the price reached $12,000, but MVRV did not exceed 2.6.

While black swan events like the coronavirus may not replay, the inference remains the same— in the long term, Bitcoin's price discovery still has a long way to go.

Shri

Indeed, that's the reasoning, no problem.

Kahn332

Believe it or not, it's up to you and your own judgment.

Pooja193

The peak is probably approaching, and that might be the case.