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1. When is the best time to sell airdropped tokens?
Among the top 50 airdrops, 23 (46%) reached their token price peaks within the first two weeks of the airdrop date. This indicates that the optimal time to sell airdropped tokens might be within 14 days of receiving them to maximize profits.
Airdropped tokens with the highest short-term price returns include Ethereum Name Service (+73% on day 2), X2Y2 (+121% on day 2), Blur (+90% on day 6), LooksRare (+192% on day 10), and ArbDoge AI (+425% on day 14).
In recent airdrops, tokens like Jito (+43% on day 2), Wen (+37% on day 3), Dymension (+75% on day 10), Manta (+72% on day 12), and Heroes of Mavia (+217% on day 13) were also most profitable for investors if sold shortly after the airdrop. However, as these airdrops have only been trading for a few weeks, whether their token prices will rise to new highs remains to be seen.
Of these 23 airdropped tokens, 16 reached peak returns between days 2 to 14 after the airdrop date. This suggests that once tokens are airdropped and begin trading, interest often surges rapidly. This confirms that token airdrops are an effective marketing or growth strategy but also indicates that interest in specific tokens tends to peak shortly thereafter, reflecting in the token's price.
The remaining 7 airdrops peaked on the airdrop day itself, with token prices unable to recover thereafter. For example, Solana's aggregator Jupiter's airdropped token started trading around $0.66 but subsequently fell by 28% and still remains below its initial price. This occurs when recipients are eager to cash out from their "free funds," resulting in immediate sell-offs. As recipients decide to exit the airdrop over time, these tokens continue to face selling pressure and set new lows.
On the other hand, among the top 50 airdrops, 27 reached peak returns more than two weeks after the airdrop date, with timeframes ranging from 15 days to 581 days. This longer timeframe for price peaks typically aligns with favorable market conditions and the growth of individual projects, allowing airdropped tokens to be valued above their initial levels.
2. Market Conditions Driving Airdrop Price Returns
38% of airdropped tokens reached their peak values during the 2021 bull market.
During the cryptocurrency bull market, 19 out of the top 50 airdrops reached all-time highs (ATH) in 2021. All of these were launched before or in 2021, indicating that market conditions drove higher valuations for these airdropped tokens.
Among these 19 tokens, 4 reached ATH over 100 days after the airdrop. These airdropped tokens were Uniswap (1,145%), 1inch (216%), Gitcoin (242%), and Bank (94%).
Compared to short-term peaks, these tokens achieved significantly higher returns at ATH. For example, Uniswap's ATH price return of 1,145% was 10 times higher than the 106% highest price return within 14 days of trading.
This suggests that for certain airdrops, recipients may consider holding onto their airdrop allocations for longer periods to appreciate, enabling higher profits in favorable market conditions.
2022: A Good Year for NFT Airdrops, but Not for Others
In 2022, the market conditions were relatively bearish, with 11 out of 50 airdropped tokens reaching ATH.
However, early 2022 saw a bull market for non-fungible tokens (NFTs), which helped push the valuations of 3 out of these 11 airdropped tokens (ApeCoin, LooksRare, and X2Y2) to new ATHs. On the other hand, other airdropped tokens reaching ATH in 2022 were launched in the same year and peaked shortly after the airdrop date.
This indicates that during bear markets, the best time to sell airdropped tokens is shortly after the airdrop to maximize profits.
2023 and 2024: Bullish Sentiment Returns?
The remaining 21 out of 50 airdropped tokens reached ATH in 2023 and 2024, with bullish sentiment returning due to the approval of the US Bitcoin ETF.
Among these 21 airdropped tokens, 8 reached ATH over 100 days after the airdrop. These airdropped tokens were Arbitrum (68%), Bonk (28,091%), Celestia (777%), Optimism (186%), Aptos (34%), WorldCoin (249%), Arkham (67%), and Maverick (38%).
Additionally, 5 other airdrops took 15 to 100 days to reach their token price peaks, while the remaining 8 airdropped tokens reached ATH within 14 days after the airdrop date. (Note that out of the 8 tokens that reached their peak within 14 days, 5 were recently airdropped: Manta, Jupiter, Dymension, Heroes of Mavia, and Wen.)
This suggests a shift in market sentiment in 2024, making it potentially more profitable to hold onto airdropped tokens when they reach new valuations in anticipated bull markets. |
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Post time 7-3-2024 14:57:43