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On February 16th, in the New York closing, the CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract reported $52,025, a 0.13% increase compared to Thursday's New York closing, with trading ranging between $51,825.00 and $52,855.00 during the session.
CME Ethereum futures DCR main contract reported $2,797.00, a 1.76% decrease compared to Thursday, with trading ranging between $2,760.50 and $2,877.50.
Considering Ethereum's price at $2,279, with a total stake of 28.8 million ETH and a validator count of 899,840, CoinMetrics calculations indicate that an attacker would need approximately $34.39 billion to execute a 34% attack on the network. If the attack were to commence on December 31, 2023, the attacker would need to breach the 33% threshold by June 14, 2024, to control the network.
Attacking Bitcoin is also challenging. Researchers estimate that attackers would face production costs exceeding $20 billion, as they would need to manufacture nearly 40 million S9 machines. By December 2023, using the most powerful ASICs, such as the upcoming Bitmain S21, would cost around $5.6 billion, approximately a quarter of the cost of using S9. This estimate is based on a unit cost of $2,240 and a production volume of 2.5 million machines.
While more cost-effective than the "naive" approach, the study asserts that manufacturing at this efficiency and scale would require collaboration with manufacturers. However, attackers may encounter supply chain issues and potential retaliation.
"Our research findings indicate that the current security status of Bitcoin and Ethereum makes attacks economically infeasible and provides empirical evidence for Nash equilibria in these networks."
The study concludes that the security measures of Bitcoin and Ethereum have reached a level where the costs and risks associated with a 51% attack far exceed potential gains. This suggests that hostile actions become less attractive compared to alternative strategies, such as honest participation in the network or avoiding attacks. |
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Post time 24-2-2024 14:01:53