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"This section explains the concept of Expected Value (EV), which is a fundamental gambling concept well-known to all expert players.
EV goes by various names, including expectation, long-term outcome, fair value, and expected value, among others. It is not exclusive to the game of blackjack but is also applicable to poker, baccarat, craps, and nearly all casino (and some non-casino) games, even professional sports betting. However, its charm is more pronounced in poker and blackjack because these games require decision-making during gameplay. It can also be helpful in determining bet sizes in sports betting.
The best way to understand EV is as the ""instantaneous value"" of a particular action or decision. For example, imagine you've bet 1,000 Hong Kong dollars on a blackjack table, and you're dealt two cards, totaling 20 points, while the dealer's face-up card is a 6. It looks promising! You certainly wouldn't hit with 20 points; it's a strong hand. What's the current value of this hand? If you had to sell this hand before the dealer draws any more cards, what would be a fair price? You're not guaranteed to win 1,000 Hong Kong dollars, so the fair price should be less than 1,000. But how much less? 900? 800? Would you sell this hand's potential winnings to a buyer offering 800? Would you sell or hold? Most people would hold; 20 points is a strong hand, and the dealer's only showing a 6.
Clearly, there are three possible outcomes: the dealer gets 21 points, and you sadly lose; the dealer gets 20 points, and it's a tie; the dealer gets 19 points or lower, and you win. Through over twenty years of simulating and calculating blackjack games, I can tell you that the probabilities of the dealer drawing to 21 points, 20 points, and other results from a starting 6 are 9.7%, 10.2%, and 80.1%, respectively. Returning to your 1,000 Hong Kong dollar bet, you have an 80.1% chance to win, a 10.2% chance to push, and a 9.7% chance to lose. The long-term pure profit for this hand, after multiple occurrences, is an average of 704 winnings per occurrence. From another perspective, the EV for this hand is +70.4%, so the fair price for this hand should be 704. If someone offers 800 (plus your initial bet), it's definitely a good deal! You stand to make a profit of 96!
What are these percentages useful for? They help you make decisions. Going back to the example, some players like to split a pair of 10s when facing the dealer's 6. Many experienced players would consider this a crazy move. Is it really crazy? Let's analyze it. We know that the EV for 20 points against the dealer's 6 is +70.4%. When you split the pair, you turn 20 into two single 10s against the dealer's 6. Calculating the EV for this is complex and not detailed here, but the result tells you this: each 10 against the dealer's 6 has an EV of +28.8%. Yes, it's still a positive value, but not as high. Splitting means you have two +28.8% EVs, not splitting keeps the original +70.4%. Which one would you choose? The answer is the +70.4%. Don't be too greedy, or maybe, be a little greedy!
In fact, for the rule that 20 points should never be split when the dealer shows any possible card (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, A), except in certain rule variations that don't apply in Macau. So, splitting a pair of 10s is indeed a crazy move.
You can apply the concept of EV to all decisions in blackjack. For example, when you hold 12 points against the dealer's 3, some players prefer to hit, while others do not. Who's right, who's wrong? The answer is that hitting has an EV of -23.3%, while standing has an EV of -25.2%. The difference isn't significant, but losing 23.3% is better than losing 25.2%. When your 12 points draw a picture card, although it doesn't feel great to lose, in the long run, it's the more favorable move.
Now, you have a better understanding of Expected Value (EV). This is a concept well-known to all expert players, whether they're casino players, sports bettors, or poker players. Of course, you can choose not to follow EV in your decisions, but it's safe to say that all professional players adhere to EV in their actions." |
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Post time 7-9-2023 12:35:35