|
|
A gambling company simultaneously offers odds for dozens of matches. According to the principles of discrete distribution, if the odds are set appropriately, the company can achieve stable profits overall. However, the pursuit of maximum profit is the capitalist's ultimate goal, making manipulating match outcomes an inevitable tactic. Due to the company's extensive experience spanning decades to centuries, their strategies and approaches to individual matches are constantly changing and challenging to predict.
I would like to address a few misconceptions among bettors:
1. **First Major Misconception:**
Believing that bookmakers win big money when significant upsets occur. Consider a match with odds of 1.20:4.50:10.00 and respective fund allocations of 70%:20%:10%. Calculating the bookmaker's profits yields: for outcome 3, a profit ratio of 16%; for outcome 1, a ratio of 10%; and for outcome 0, a ratio of 0%. In the most common scenario (outcome 3), the bookmaker's profit is the highest. The notion that bookmakers win big only when underdogs prevail is flawed. True upsets cannot be determined solely based on fixed odds, as they depend on the associated fund allocations. Bookmakers often manipulate odds and take actions to entice bets on certain outcomes, making such trends more evident in fluctuating odds (handicap).
2. **Second Major Misconception:**
Believing that bookmakers control the outcomes of most (or all) matches. While bookmakers can influence a single match's outcome, orchestrating results across the board is a highly complex undertaking. This requires robust personal connections, substantial financial resources, and intricate manipulation techniques. Individuals involved (club management, coaches, players) are carefully selected and groomed. Controlling all match outcomes is not only impractical but also economically inefficient. Bookmakers concentrate their efforts on a select few high-stakes matches, where substantial profits can be generated. Other less consequential matches, win or lose, only represent a fraction of their overall earnings.
3. **Third Major Misconception:**
Assuming there are universal patterns in odds or handicaps that guarantee consistent victories. In gambling and speculative industries, the eternal struggle between bookmakers and bettors revolves around odds and handicaps. There are no fixed patterns; the only constant is change. The one unchanging principle is that bookmakers employ all means to maximize their profits. As a bettor, understanding this principle is crucial for analysis and decision-making. Otherwise, what may seem like capturing the mermaid's tail could turn out to be grasping the tongue of a dinosaur. |
|
Post time 9-2-2024 06:09:23