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"Asian Handicap Analysis: Pattern Analysis Method
Analyzing odds is something that some people both love and hate. You're thrilled when your analysis is correct, but it can be frustrating when you're wrong. Let's talk about one of the highest levels of Asian Handicap analysis – the Pattern Analysis Method. There is a dedicated group of professionals whose job is to analyze odds, and we call these individuals football betting analysts. This profession can seem mysterious to outsiders. While it may appear simple with just two choices – over or under – there's a lot more to it than meets the eye. Often, a seemingly sure bet can lead to unexpected losses. So, what is the highest level of analysis when it comes to handicaps? The most common odds we encounter and find most valuable are Asian Handicaps. Have you heard of the Bar Theory?
The Bar Theory
Let's briefly explain this theory. In football analysis, we often rely on subjective beliefs. We all know the ""big favorites are doomed to lose"" concept. When most people think this way, the favorite team isn't actually heavily bet on, and it's not considered a ""big favorite.""
Let's say a bar can accommodate 60 people. If someone predicts that more than 60 people will go to the bar, their decision is not to go; otherwise, they will go. How do these 100 people make their decisions on whether to go or not? This is a typical dynamic group game problem. The problem has the following restrictions: each participant only knows how many people went to the bar in the past, so they can only base their strategies on previous historical data. There's no other information available, and they cannot communicate with each other. Each participant faces a dilemma: if many people predict that there will be more than 60 people, and they decide not to go, the bar will be empty. In this case, their predictions will be wrong. Conversely, if a large number of people predict that there will be fewer than 60 people, they will go to the bar, and the bar will be crowded, exceeding 60 people. In this case, their predictions will also be wrong. Therefore, making a correct prediction is extremely difficult in this situation. This is the Bar Theory.
Returning to football analysis, how do bookmakers analyze a match? They are completely objective. Bookmakers rely on objective analysis and actual performance to derive accurate data. This is why they consistently profit by factoring in punters' tendencies. Punters repeatedly become lambs to the slaughter. My point is, reverse the process.
Next, let's introduce another theory – the Coin Theory.
It's widely known that when choosing an Asian Handicap, there are essentially two options: over and under. We often think that the over (handicapped) side is easier to win. However, this isn't always the case. Think of it like flipping a coin. With a small number of flips, there may be differences between the number of heads and tails. But with a large number of flips, you'll find that the number of heads and tails approaches equality. Bookmakers consistently profit by taking a small commission after each flip. The more you participate, the more likely you are to lose. According to statistics, fewer than 1.5% of punters profit from betting, which means the vast majority lose money. This type of betting doesn't involve much skill, and everyone's probability of winning or losing is nearly the same.
Now that we've discussed these two theories, you might be feeling a bit hopeless about football betting. But don't worry! Next, we'll explain how to effectively beat the bookmakers and make a profit!
Standard Pattern Analysis Method
Before betting on a match, it's essential to have a thorough understanding of which direction the bookmakers are likely to attract most of the bets. This is where the Standard Pattern Analysis Method comes into play! It's like a scale used to measure how bookmakers influence a game. The Standard Pattern, in simple terms, is to comprehensively analyze various factors and open a standard handicap for a match. You then compare this standard handicap with the actual opening handicap to determine the game's outcome. This is called Pattern Analysis. So, how do you arrive at the standard handicap? It involves eight key factors: home team's home record (whether they are strong at home), away team's away record (whether they struggle away), recent performance of both teams, head-to-head history, media influence, European odds, and Asian Handicap.
Example Analysis:
Let's take a friendly international match that ended on November 10th last year as an example.
From the chart above, we can see that the bookmakers offered a 0.25 handicap for Romania. According to the Standard Pattern Analysis Method, the game should have been opened with a level handicap. As a result, most of the bets went to Turkey, thinking they were getting a good deal (an easy win). This further illustrates that the bookmakers were guarding against Romania winning, rather than Turkey. The final result was Romania's 2-0 victory over Turkey. Once you have this ""scale"" of the Standard Pattern in mind, you can easily see through the bookmakers' intentions." |
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Post time 7-9-2023 11:06:54
