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Understanding Odds
Odds originated in Europe, with the concept first invented by the British in 1790, credited to a person named Ogden. The odds system, commonly known as European odds, is widely used in various forms of betting, not limited to football. In football betting, European odds can be applied to different outcomes of a match, such as win, draw, or loss, as well as championship odds for leagues and cups. They can even include odds for specific events within a match, such as goal scorers or final scores.
For example, in a match where Real Madrid challenges Atletico Madrid, a bookmaker like William Hill might offer odds as follows: home team win at 4.33, draw at 3.40, and away team win at 1.66. This means that the odds for Real Madrid to win are the lowest, indicating the highest probability, while the odds for the home team to lose are the highest, indicating the lowest probability at 4.33 times. It's important to note that lower odds do not guarantee a victory, as the probabilities of a draw or loss still exist, though less frequently. The odds are determined based on the teams' strengths and objective factors such as form, home/away performance, and other influencing factors. However, if heavy betting occurs on one side, the bookmaker may adjust the odds accordingly.
Due to geographical and traditional reasons, European bookmakers often possess comprehensive and unique match data that regular players cannot access. In special circumstances where match manipulation may occur, the odds set by European bookmakers become particularly significant. Therefore, European odds are a primary reference for experienced bettors in predicting match outcomes. In most cases, initial odds objectively reflect the likelihood of a win, draw, or loss in a match.
Odds Format and Calculation
European odds, compared to Asian handicaps, are more suitable for football betting patterns, providing specific and intuitive guidance. These odds directly reflect the probabilities of the two teams winning, drawing, or losing, making them easy to understand and apply in practice. It's important to note that odds already include the stake, so when calculating profit, the stake amount should be subtracted.
Bookmakers determine odds similar to how insurance companies calculate premiums and payout schemes. They rely on rigorous probability calculations, analyzing various data and information about the competing teams, such as recent trends, injuries, head-to-head records, home/away performance, team dynamics, and club operations. After estimating the probabilities of win, draw, and loss, bookmakers use a formula:
\[ \text{a} \div \text{b} = \text{c}, \text{c} - \text{c} \times 10\% = \text{d} \]
Where:
- \(\text{a}\) is the base number for calculating percentage probability (usually 100),
- \(\text{b}\) is the percentage probability obtained by the bookmaker's analysis,
- \(\text{c}\) is the result of \(\text{a} \div \text{b}\), and
- \(\text{d}\) is the final calculated odds after the 10% adjustment.
For example, if the bookmaker calculates Juventus' probability of winning against AC Milan in Serie A to be around 40%, the calculation would be as follows:
\[ \text{Step 1: } 100 \div 40 = 2.5 \]
\[ \text{Step 2: } 2.5 - 2.5 \times 10\% = 2.25 \]
Therefore, the bookmaker would set the odds for Juventus to win at around 2.25. Similar calculations can be applied to draw and AC Milan's victory.
After setting the odds, bookmakers may adjust them based on team dynamics and betting trends. Some matches may experience significant odds changes, while others, unaffected by team dynamics and betting trends, remain relatively stable. |
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Post time 25-1-2024 06:39:43