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Analysis of Two Common Methods Used in Casinos and the Illusion of 'Leading Temporarily' Phenomenon
Before we delve into the discussion, let's analyze two commonly used methods in the casino. The first is the 'Passing Three Stages,' and the second is the 'Three Consecutive Wins and One Stage' method. Both methods involve betting on the outcome of three consecutive rounds in the game of baccarat.
In the 'Passing Three Stages' method, there are eight possible permutations of three cards, as seen in the baccarat banker and player variation chart. This set of permutations is commonly referred to as the '8 roads.' When passing three stages, there is one winning road out of eight, which is an 8-to-1 chance, and seven losing roads, making it a 8-to-7 chance. Taking a 100-unit bet as an example, the profit when winning is 700 units, and the capital lost when losing is also 700 units. Due to the casino's commission system, the actual profit for the gambler when winning is less than 700 units. Therefore, the winning probability for the gambler in this method should be less than 0.
The 'Three Consecutive Wins and One Stage' method has seven winning roads and one losing road. Using 100, 300, and 700 units as an example, the profit when winning is 1100 units, and the capital lost when losing is also 1100 units. Due to the commission system, the winning probability for the gambler is less than 0, while the losing probability is greater than 0.
Some gamblers argue that using a fund allocation ratio of 100:300:700 (referred to as "137") is more reasonable than using 200:400:800 (referred to as "248"). They believe that the "137" method is more cost-effective as it results in a higher profit of 300 units when winning, with a capital of 1100 units. In contrast, the "248" method yields a profit of only 200 units when winning, with a capital of 1400 units, and an additional expenditure of 300 units. However, a comprehensive calculation reveals that both methods have an equal winning and losing rate.
In conclusion, the analysis shows that neither of the two betting formulas discussed above surpasses the system set by the inventor of baccarat.
Now, let's examine another illusion – the 'Leading Temporarily' phenomenon. This phenomenon occurs when gamblers experience a temporary profit upon entering the casino, which we refer to as the 'Leading Temporarily' phenomenon. It is crucial to differentiate between 'Leading Temporarily' in sports competitions and the casino setting. In sports, being in a 'Leading Temporarily' position may influence the final result, but in baccarat, it does not affect the winning probability.
Theoretically, the 'Three Consecutive Wins and One Stage' method is more likely to create the 'Leading Temporarily' phenomenon than the 'Passing Three Stages' method. The probability of the 'Leading Temporarily' phenomenon in the 'Three Consecutive Wins and One Stage' method is 87.5%, while in the 'Passing Three Stages' method, it is 12.5%. However, this doesn't mean that the 'Three Consecutive Wins and One Stage' method is simpler for gaining profits.
The 'Leading Temporarily' phenomenon can be tempting for gamblers, and it serves as bait provided by the casino, or more specifically, the inventor of baccarat.
The reason behind the 'Leading Temporarily' phenomenon is the result of the probability fluctuation in baccarat. In this context, we interpret this outcome as the 'False Win' phenomenon. 'False Win' refers to the inevitable reversal of the winner's profit under the 50-50 probability scenario. |
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Post time 24-1-2024 16:24:09