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The main factors contributing to losses in baccarat are the house edge and volatility, often referred to as the "weapons" of the house. Cashback is a promotion offered by the house to attract customers and can be used to offset losses due to the house edge and withstand volatility. Regardless of what it's called, it contributes to our income. So, should we consider cashback when formulating a strategy? After analyzing it today, it seems quite surprising! While the house still maintains an advantage, it's noticeably smaller. However, betting on ties is still not worthwhile due to the significant advantage held by the house.
Below, I provide the theoretical results for betting 100,000 hands on the banker and player, both before and after considering a 1% cashback (assuming no tie bets):
Total Rounds 100,000 Return Rate Win Rate Return Rate with 1% Cashback
Banker Wins 45,860 -1.17% 50.68% -0.17%
Player Wins 44,625 -1.36% 49.32% -0.36%
Ties 9,515 -14.37% 9.52% -13.37%
As we can see, once we factor in the cashback, the house's advantage significantly decreases. This is also why experienced players often recommend consistently betting on the banker!
After analyzing this, I believe you all have a better understanding. When devising a betting strategy, it should revolve around how to overcome the house edge. However, among many gamblers, cashback is often seen as extra income and not included in profit calculations. Should you consider cashback as part of your profits? I think it should be considered. After taking into account cashback, your initial capital will be relatively smaller in case of losses. This can provide a sense of stability, increase confidence, and prevent you from chasing losses. It might just be this slight delay in incurring losses that saves your capital and prevents catastrophic events. When you've used up all your cashback (which will eventually reflect in your gaming account, as it's not immediately credited), and if your win rate isn't exceptionally low, it shows that your strategy isn't fundamentally flawed, making it easier to accept the reality of "loss."
On the other hand, if you encounter significant losses at a very low win rate, you won't need to panic because you've factored in the cashback, ensuring you don't go bankrupt. After weathering a losing streak, the process of recovering your initial capital is also the process of your funds returning.
Sometimes, even when we aren't experiencing losses (considering cashback, we're still in a profitable state), our emotions can lead to irrational decisions. We might make erratic bets and increase our stakes, which can lead to failure.
In conclusion, considering cashback when developing your baccarat strategy can provide a safety net and psychological stability during both winning and losing streaks. It's not just extra income; it's a crucial aspect of your overall strategy. |
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