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The current question is whether the actual approval of ETF, considering it has not definitively made Bitcoin a mainstream asset, will serve as a reason for speculators to gain some profits. K33 Research analysts Anders Helseth and Vetle Lunde wrote in a report, "We do not expect the ETF to receive an immediate massive inflow of capital; hence, it may be classified as a 'sell the news' event." However, they added that these products indicate a long-term structural shift in buyer interest.
K33 estimates that there is still a 5% chance of the SEC making a "shocking decision" and rejecting the introduction of an ETF directly investing in Bitcoin. The company believes there is a 75% chance of Bitcoin being approved as a "sell the news" event and a 20% chance of further upward movement in Bitcoin prices due to ETF capital inflows.
Digital assets also benefit from bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2024. The early-year weakness in the stock market reflects a partial repricing of these forecasts. If investors continue to reduce expectations for loose monetary policy, cryptocurrency prices may experience volatility.
Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, wrote in a report that the rising cost of betting on Bitcoin price increases in the futures market indicates "speculative excess" in this token's bull market. He stated, "The financing costs at these levels typically precede volatility, and the direction of volatility will depend on recent fund flows." |
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Post time 9-1-2024 12:57:48