|
The idea that Bitcoin is about to experience a typical 30% decline is circulating. However, in the current environment of awaiting the announcement of a spot Bitcoin ETF, a pullback of no more than 10% is realistic.
Typical Bitcoin Corrections
Bull markets in Bitcoin's brief history have always been accompanied by average corrections of around 30%. In 2021, the price of BTC even dropped by 55%, only to rise again to new highs by the end of the year. Therefore, these declines are not uncommon after several months of price increases. So far, in this bull market cycle, BTC has experienced around 20 declines, each with a magnitude of about 10%.
Currently, the pause period for this runaway train, Bitcoin, has only reached 10.7%. It seems that BTC is not very interested in further declines, as it is quickly bought up by those hoping for a decline each time the price starts to fall. Once the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs is announced, possibly in the next two weeks, they are expected to take advantage of what they perceive as an upcoming positive price trend.
BTC continues to fluctuate within a range since the price trend in early October of $44,250. Several support and resistance levels can be observed, and BTC is in a sideways consolidation phase. The top of this range is $40,550, and the bottom is $37,000. The question here is whether BTC will continue to stay within this range in the next two weeks. This may depend on the amount of BTC bought by bulls during this consolidation period. As the potential date of October 48,000 approaches, buying interest may intensify, and BTC may leave this range, heading towards the potential target of $50,000 to $52,000.
Bitcoin Rebound
On further magnification, BTC has rebounded well from the 0.618 Fibonacci level and is now trending higher. Considering that institutions are in the Christmas holiday period, it remains to be seen whether there is enough trading volume to break through the annual high around $45,000. Regardless of the outcome, the next few weeks will be highly anticipated. |
|