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Analysis of Blackjack (21) Payout Rates, Strategies, and House Edge

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Post time 21-12-2023 21:12:03 | Show all posts |Read mode
Blackjack is generally the game with the lowest house advantage in a casino, usually around 2% or less (compared to 5%-8% for slot machines). Just for this reason alone, it's essential to know how to play. I won't go into the details here; you can look it up online or ask me another day, and you can learn in three minutes.

Blackjack is a table game that some people fear because it involves face-to-face interaction, language barriers, and differences in skill levels. However, it's not as intimidating as it seems. All actions (hit, stand, double down, split, take insurance, surrender) can be expressed through gestures. If you don't speak the language, no one will bother you if you remain silent. Skill level matters less when the table is not crowded; I'll tell you what to do if there are many people later.

Let's talk about the relationship between rules and payout rates. The rules for Blackjack vary in every casino because they can't make much money from it, especially when the minimum bet is low. Therefore, they use various methods to lower the payout rate, such as using more decks of cards (four decks instead of two reduces it by about 0.18%), dealer hits on soft 17 (A6) reduces it by around 0.22%, and so on. Here are some common rule variations and their impact on the payout rate:

- Blackjack pays 2 to 1: +2.27%
- Winning with five cards without busting: +1.46%
- Blackjack with the same suit pays 2 to 1: +0.57%
- Player can double at any time: +0.23%
- Ace can be split and still form a blackjack: +0.19%
- Ace can be split and still be hit: +0.19%
- Winning with six cards without busting: +0.16%
- Ace can be split: +0.08%
- Surrender option available: +0.07%
- Player can only double on 9-11: -0.09%
- Player can only split once: -0.10%
- Player cannot double after splitting: -0.14%
- Player can only double on 10 and 11: -0.18%
- Blackjack pays 5 to 6: -1.39%
- Blackjack pays 1 to 1: -2.27%

Based on examples I've seen in Las Vegas, the typical $5 minimum bet table has four decks, the dealer hits on soft 17, no surrender option, and no doubling after splitting Aces or forming a blackjack after splitting. If you're at a higher minimum bet table, you might find surrender rules or more favorable options, resulting in a higher payout of around 0.5%. While less than 1% difference may not affect you much, it significantly impacts the casino's earnings. So, if possible, find tables with better rules and avoid unfavorable ones. Casinos usually don't display the rules; you have to ask.

I've never encountered the first three favorable rules mentioned above since I haven't played blackjack with bets exceeding $10 (can't afford it). However, unfavorable rules are quite common. Many casinos introduce single-deck blackjack, theoretically advantageous for players as it's easier to count cards. However, most of these tables have the 5 to 6 blackjack payout or even 1 to 1, and players can only double on 10 and 11, resulting in a more than 1% lower payout. Therefore, it's generally advisable to avoid single-deck blackjack.

Now let's talk about strategy. Playing blackjack requires a strategy to enjoy the lowest house advantage. Following the perfect strategy allows you to minimize losses. You can refer to this link http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/bj4deck.html to see what actions to take in different situations. For example, if you have an A and a 5, and the dealer's face-up card is a 6, according to the chart, you should double down. Some people find the chart confusing at first, but with practice (dealing cards to yourself), you can memorize it easily after a few dozen times. Compared to many other games, blackjack strategy is relatively simple. Also, ""trust expert analysis."" Can you trust the chart? I say yes because I've seen about five or six charts that are very similar. If you do things your way, there's no problem, but your payout rate may decrease by 2% to 5%, depending on your level of wisdom.

Besides rules and strategy, I need to remind you of a few things:

- Never buy insurance, even if you have a blackjack. All reliable sources state that buying insurance is not beneficial. The reason is that if the dealer has an Ace, even without a blackjack, it's challenging for you to win. If you buy insurance, you'll likely lose more money. Statistically, buying insurance gives the dealer an advantage of over 5% (more decks result in a higher advantage).
- At the table, 21 is a team game. If you don't follow basic strategy, you might get disapproving looks from others (""Why did you hit? The dealer would have busted!""). If you're a beginner, and the table is crowded, at least don't sit in the last position. Although how you play is your business, it's not nice to inconvenience others.
- If surrender is allowed, surrender whenever you have 15 or 16 points, and the dealer has an Ace or a 10 showing. In situations like these, you have less than a 30% chance of winning. Surrendering means losing only half, which is not bad.
- Many people are lazy to memorize the strategy and just play blackjack like the dealer - hit below 17, stand at 17 or above, no splitting, no doubling down. It might seem fine, but this approach reduces the payout rate by about 5%.

You might have heard of a betting method: bet one unit, if you lose, bet two units, then four units, and so on until you win one unit back. Absolutely not! First, there are betting limits on tables, like $5-$5000, so exceeding that would result in a disastrous defeat. Second, remember that according to probability, the casino is here to make money from us. This betting method increases the average amount you bet per hand, leading to more substantial and quicker losses.

Finally, let me mention card counting. If you have some knowledge of blackjack, you've probably heard of how to count cards. I was fascinated by these theories for a while, but my experience in recent years and the articles I've read made me think that card counting doesn't help much. So, I won't go into the principles of card counting here, but I'll share why it can't significantly increase our chances of winning:

- Remembering cards is challenging. I tried for a long time and never managed to remember my count between two shuffles. Even if you have multiple people counting together, the fast pace of the casino can lead to significant communication issues.
- According to statistics, card counting can increase a player's payout rate by approximately 0.5% to 1%, but the player's money will fluctuate greatly. Finding a table with better rules or memorizing basic strategy is much simpler most of the time.

Most of the time, people who count
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Post time 21-12-2023 21:21:45 | Show all posts
Experience is indispensable.
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