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Edited by Kabir903 at 22-12-2023 04:54 AM
How to Judge Betting Psychology.
Since you are on an equal information footing with other players, as long as you analyze with a calm mind, your psychology can basically be equivalent to public psychology (of course, at this time, you should not go against the public). The information mainly includes team strength, home and away performance, recent form, historical records, player injuries, public opinion, and handicap size. Each piece of data can influence betting psychology. After comprehensively analyzing all the data and weighing the impact of each factor, you can obtain a general tendency in betting psychology. For example, if both sides have balanced betting, one side is slightly favored but not significantly, or one side is heavily favored, you can deduce the current betting situation and figure out who the bookmaker is possibly misleading.
In the 2004 season, Manchester United played away against Blackburn in the first round. Manchester United undoubtedly had a significant advantage in strength. Since it was the first round, the status of both teams was unclear. In the previous season, Blackburn's home performance was similar to Manchester United's away performance, but historically, Blackburn often won at home against Manchester United. Therefore, aside from strength, there wasn't much data supporting Manchester United, and the handicap opened with a low water level for half a goal. Players may have a strong team consciousness, and the favorable handicap would attract some bets. However, due to a lack of other supporting data and the psychological impact of historical records, the upper hand should only be slightly favored. At this point, because the two sides are evenly matched, if the handicap moves to half a goal, it naturally indicates some confidence in Manchester United. However, due to the slight favoritism, the low water level should not be underestimated. The odds for Manchester United fluctuated between 0.80 and 0.825. However, just before the match, the odds expressed the bookmaker's opinion by gradually rising to 0.875. Since it was a gradual increase without reaching the middle water level, it wasn't a rushed move. As mentioned earlier, because the betting psychology judgment indicates a slight favoritism towards the upper hand, the betting funds are still leaning slightly towards the upper hand. Therefore, the upward movement of the upper hand is unreasonable. Although it's a small change, it can be inferred that the bookmaker is not optimistic about the upper hand winning. The result was as expected—Manchester United fell behind for eighty minutes and only managed to draw in the end.
Another example is the 2004 match between Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur. At that time, Chelsea was in excellent form, and winning against Tottenham at home seemed to be a foregone conclusion for players. The opening of one ball one and a half was reasonable, but there was a crucial factor: despite Chelsea's consecutive victories, almost every game was a narrow 1-0 win. Therefore, with a handicap of one ball one and a half, players would tend to favor the upper hand, but due to the concern that a narrow win would result in losing half the bet, the lower hand also had value. However, the bookmaker withdrew the handicap to one ball with a low water level early on. While players couldn't be sure if Chelsea could win by two goals, at least a win without suspense made the one-ball handicap risk-free. At least not losing, why not go for it? So, at this time, betting psychology would heavily favor Chelsea. When I saw this change on Friday, I selected 1 as a confident choice for the weekend's football pool. The result was that Tottenham Hotspur defended the entire match, and Chelsea had no way to break through. At this point, the bookmaker had fully considered the players' concerns about the current handicap. They helped eliminate the last bit of worry and took advantage of the players' psychology of fearing a narrow win causing a loss in the handicap. |
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Post time 15-12-2023 20:38:19