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Zero-Sum Game
In a zero-sum game, two people flip a coin, and one has to guess whether it will land heads or tails. If heads appear consecutively ten times, what is the probability of it being heads on the eleventh flip? Or, if heads have appeared N times in a row, what is the probability of heads on the N+1 flip?
Many may think that the chances of tails appearing next are high, and the probability of heads appearing again is low. However, the correct answer is that the probability of either heads or tails is always 50%.
The probability of a single guess is always 50%, and over the long term, the occurrences of heads and tails are roughly equal. In other words, after a sufficient number of flips, the sum of heads and tails is generally close to zero.
Football betting is essentially a 'zero-sum game' like this.
Compared to Asian handicap betting, where there are only two outcomes (win or lose), if a player consistently places random bets (assuming equal bet amounts), their accuracy should be around 50%. This means that random betting is bound to result in losses. Additionally, with each bet, the player must pay a certain 'commission' to the bookmaker, and cumulatively, it can be a substantial amount (European handicap discussions are more complex and are not covered in this article).
Some may believe that their skill level or good luck gives them a win rate well above 50%, ensuring they won't incur losses. While such individuals may exist for certain periods, they do not pose a threat to the bookmakers. From a broader perspective, for every winner, there is a loser, determined by the nature of football betting. Regardless of how players approach the game, the bookmakers simply collect their 'commission.' Theoretically, players are destined to be at a disadvantage!
As a result, players often find themselves in a challenging situation: (in the case of equal bets) losing one round doesn't mean breaking even with a subsequent win but requires winning at least two rounds! To recover losses, players continuously increase their bets. Eventually, the goal shifts from seeking profits to desperately trying to recover losses. Initially calm mental states experience significant fluctuations. In this process, the majority of players end up as the ultimate losers, forced to exit.
This is the principle that in 'ten gambles,' 'nine losses' are inevitable.
The Last One Standing
There's a popular saying nowadays, 'the last one standing is the winner.' The essence of this saying is that in a fiercely competitive market (business or stock market), whoever survives is the king. Is it really the case? Is the one left standing automatically the winner?
Not necessarily; they just have a chance to win, and perhaps a better chance.
In reality, whether in business or the stock market, the one left standing is not without scars. It can be said that the true winners may not have gained much wealth, but during the process of being the last one standing, they learned lessons, gained experience, sharpened their senses, honed their skills, gradually understood the market, avoided risks, and continued moving forward.
Strictly speaking, only by becoming the 'last one standing' first can one have the possibility of becoming the 'king.' |
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Post time 14-12-2023 06:56:44