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Edited by Samiksha at 26-12-2023 12:58 PM
Bitcoin's fourth halving is approaching, marking a significant milestone for both investors and Bitcoin itself. In this edition, we will continue to delve into the notable supply scarcity in the Bitcoin market and explain how we should assess investor behavior patterns leading up to the fourth halving.
Summary:
The fourth halving of Bitcoin is imminent. As this moment approaches, the level of supply scarcity in the Bitcoin market has reached historic highs.
We extensively evaluate various indicators of Bitcoin's "available suppl" in the market and the "supply-hold ratio" of long-term investors. These indicators exceed 200% of the new issuance.
By comparing the relationship between market capitalization and realized market capitalization, we estimate that the capital injection into the Bitcoin market due to supply scarcity will have a profound impact on the overall valuation of the Bitcoin market.
Dynamic assessment of supply for Bitcoin's fourth halving in 2024:
Halving is one of the most crucial milestones in Bitcoin's development, occurring approximately every 210,000 blocks, leading to a halving of the output. According to Bitcoin's operational logic, the fourth halving should occur when the block height reaches 840,000. However, due to the influence of probability factors affecting block generation speed and natural variations in blocks, the exact time of the fourth halving is still unknown.
Considering the current average block generation speed, the most accurate estimate we can make is that the fourth halving is expected to occur on April 23, 2024, which is 158 days away from the current date. |
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