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When people encounter a new betting strategy, what aspects do they focus on first? I've expressed a similar viewpoint about the need for coordination between bet types and betting strategies when discussing two-bead strategies in a previous post, and I'd like to elaborate on it here.
When it comes to coordination, it's a comprehensive issue that requires a complete game plan. This game plan stems from the goal.
Under a clear goal, you decide how to allocate your bankroll, base units, betting types, and betting strategies.
For example, if you have a bankroll of $1000 and your goal is to make a small profit of $100 to $200 a day or to reach a $5000 profit within a few rounds, the betting types for these two scenarios might be the same, but the betting strategies would be different.
From the perspective of betting types, many methods can provide a rough expectation of wins and losses, and this can guide the variations in betting strategies.
For example, in the ongoing strategy of a member named SUN0223, who bets on both Player and Banker continuously, what kind of regular or extreme wins and losses can be expected? It's predictable: when encountering a Player streak, it will be a series of ""+"" signs; when encountering a reverse Player streak, it will be a series of ""-"" signs; when encountering a long single-point streak, it will be a mix of ""+"" and ""-"" signs. Because it's a continuous strategy, the probability of encountering such patterns is something everyone should understand. These fluctuations and losing streaks are clearly predictable and certain to happen, so using a simple negative progression betting strategy doesn't match the characteristics of this strategy. SUN0223 uses a gradual, layered flat betting approach to mitigate these fluctuations and takes advantage of the win-loss pattern regression effect (a concept introduced by seasoned casino players in real-world scenarios, which means that hitting rates fluctuate around 50%, and deviations from that are likely to regress). Even with slightly more losses than wins, SUN0223 can still achieve stable small profits, while maintaining 1000 base units to counteract fluctuations. This is a more suitable coordination.
Moving on to the highly-discussed ED two-bead and three-bead strategies, those who have used these strategies for an extended period should be able to feel that when betting on 2-bead patterns, the most common win-loss pattern is a alternating ""+-"" pattern. For this type of bet, I believe that using a 1-2 or 1-3 negative progression short progression is the simplest and most suitable. In more extreme situations, consecutive wins and losses may also be longer, but this kind of fluctuation is less predictable than in the strategy described earlier. Therefore, I believe there's no need to obsess too much about betting types. Regardless of how the betting types change, they all have their limitations, and the probability of encountering a losing streak is consistent. There's a post in the forum asking if ""random betting is also 50%?"" I think there might be some deviation in the short term, but in the long run, it should be close to 50%. Because how do we understand the ""random"" in random betting? Placing a bet on Banker or Player at random can be considered random betting. Betting strategies are created by humans and not objectively defined. But betting types are by no means useless, because using a fixed betting type for a long time will result in win-loss patterns with certain characteristics. Taking SUN0223's strategy as an example, when encountering a long streak, there will be a long series of ""+""; when encountering a reverse streak, it will be a long series of ""-"", and these two situations will occur frequently.
However, when using the two-bead and three-bead betting types, the probability of encountering these two win-loss patterns is much lower. But can we determine the superiority or inferiority of these three betting strategies based on this? No. We can only see that the betting type can affect and create different fluctuations, but it doesn't change the fundamental 50%.
Another example is Master Yi Qiu's short pattern strategy. The essence of this strategy is a modified two-bead strategy, but with clear entry points and stop-loss levels. Bet Banker on Player-Player or Player on Banker-Banker. Since short patterns often continue for a long time, this betting type works well with a negative progression betting strategy. Similarly, there are situations where you may encounter 3 consecutive patterns when switching between different patterns. In extreme situations, you may also encounter different patterns when switching patterns.
I have always been quite enthusiastic about these three types of betting strategies and have spent time researching betting types. However, the results were not good. Therefore, I believe it's better to start from the amplitude of betting types and betting strategies. For example, in the short pattern strategy, using a 1-2 negative progression short progression, I found that in general, reaching 80 to 100 bets in about 2 hours, with a stop-loss of 20 base units for a round, and a win limit of 5 units, is a good choice.
In other words, ending the round with a profit or emptying the bankroll after 20 units is sufficient. If you haven't reached this goal by the end of the session, you can take a break. This is mainly for the sake of physical and mental health. Of course, this betting strategy is only suitable for making small daily profits.
Some players may say, ""Winning 4 rounds and ending the session with a profit is still a zero-sum game, isn't it?"" Theoretically, maybe, but is the likelihood of achieving a +5 amplitude with this betting type equivalent to four times the likelihood of a -20 amplitude? I can't be sure, but I would like to say that ending the session with a profit requires extreme downswings, while achieving +5 only requires normal win-loss patterns. Or in other words, using some mitigated progressive betting strategies can also counteract the zero-sum effect caused by fluctuations.
I'll stop here for now. My thoughts aren't very clear, so please bear with me and provide your insights. I'm just throwing out some ideas and hoping for some feedback." |
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Post time 8-11-2023 12:21:42
