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"Ordinary players only follow, while experts know when to bet against.
I believe that the majority of football lottery players pay attention to the football lottery experts in the market and look at their analysis. In this state, if you think the analysis is good, you can follow the advice. If the analysis is not good, you can either skip it or use some of their information and insights. I categorize these players as A-level for now, which is already a good level; there are also players who blindly follow without thinking, and whether they win or lose, they react impulsively, even resorting to insults or unfollowing immediately when they lose. I would categorize this type as A- level, as they lack independent judgment and critical thinking, making it difficult for them to improve. Furthermore, they have an unstable mentality and are prone to impulsive decisions. Both of these traits are taboo in gambling. There is also a small group of people with exceptionally high analytical skills, but when they see a recommendation, they do not view it as brilliant analysis or an unbeatable opportunity, but rather as a signal to bet against it. I categorize these individuals as A+; they possess a contrarian mindset, understand the essence of gambling, and can read the psychology of other players. They are true gambling experts. So, ask yourself, which category do you currently belong to?
Betting against others has a theoretical basis, as the majority of players experience losses.
So, where is the rationale for betting against others? According to the 55% theory, in the long run, no matter how strong the win rate of a gambling expert in the Asian market is, it will not exceed 55%. In fact, the vast majority of people experience losses, including football lottery experts in the market. In other words, if you stand on the opposite side of these losing individuals, theoretically, you can make a profit. This is somewhat like a phenomenon in a casino known as "lighting the lamp." It means that if you find someone in the casino who is having bad luck, you bet big when they bet small, and you bet small when they bet big. It's not about your own luck, but rather betting against their bad luck. Therefore, betting against others, or more accurately, not betting against just anyone, but instead finding those worth betting against based on your own experience, can be profitable.
Who and when should you bet against?
This is more of an experiential decision, and I can't provide a definitive answer. I'll roughly describe three scenarios. Scenario 1: You've been following a group of experts and football lottery enthusiasts, and you notice that everyone's opinions on a particular match are unusually uniform, whether it's the favored outcome or the unpopular one. As long as there's a strangely high degree of consensus, you can bet against it. This is somewhat like going against the crowd. Scenario 2: There's an expert or a football lottery friend who has been consistently losing lately, and their losses are becoming apparent. They've started making irrational bets. You can bet against them because their luck is bad, which is a taboo in gambling. Scenario 3: There's an expert or football lottery friend who has recently been on a winning streak, and then they start to become overconfident, boastful in their words, and show signs of ego. You can bet against them because their good fortune is likely nearing its end. Therefore, betting against others depends on trends and psychological analysis." |
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Post time 17-10-2023 07:56:42