Analysis of the probability of over and under outcomes in football.

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Half One (+0.75&-0.75): This handicap generally leans towards the higher-scoring team. Over the past 13 seasons in the top five leagues, the Asian Handicap of half one has produced an average of 58% of outcomes favoring the higher-scoring team. However, due to the presence of ""win half"" outcomes, actual betting might not necessarily result in profits. From the bookmaker's perspective, it remains a balanced state in terms of payouts.

Ball One and a Half (+1.75&-1.75): Overall, the top five leagues slightly lean towards the higher-scoring team in this handicap, but there are variations among different leagues, with some leaning slightly higher and others slightly lower.

Half a Goal (+0.25&-0.25): This is a handicap that generally leans towards the lower-scoring team. Over the past 13 seasons in the top five leagues, the probability of the lower-scoring team winning is approximately 57%. However, due to the presence of ""lose half"" outcomes, it remains a balanced state from the bookmaker's payout perspective.

One Ball and One and a Half (+1.25&-1.25): Overall, the top five leagues slightly lean towards the lower-scoring team in this handicap, but there are differences among leagues. For example, when the home team is given a one-ball and one-and-a-half-ball handicap, the Premier League, La Liga, and Ligue 1 all have around a 60% probability of lower-scoring outcomes, while Serie A leans towards higher-scoring outcomes, and the Bundesliga is more balanced. When the home team is giving a one-ball and one-and-a-half-ball handicap, the Premier League, La Liga, and Bundesliga have relatively balanced probabilities for higher and lower-scoring outcomes, while Serie A and Ligue 1 lean towards lower-scoring outcomes.

Level Handicap (0): The probabilities of the three possible outcomes (win, draw, lose) are very balanced for a level handicap. However, as the handicap moves away from a whole number, such as a one-ball handicap or a two-ball handicap, the probability of a draw decreases, and the probabilities start to shift towards higher or lower-scoring outcomes.

Half Ball Handicap (+0.5&-0.5) and One Ball Handicap (+1.5&-1.5) have relatively balanced probabilities for higher and lower-scoring outcomes, with the half-ball handicap being more common.

Handicaps of two balls or more have lower frequencies and fewer samples, making individual analysis less valuable. If we combine all handicaps of two balls or more, the probabilities for higher and lower-scoring outcomes are roughly equal.

Note: The direction of the higher and lower-scoring outcome probabilities mentioned above is based on initial odds from Macau, and specific data can be found in the August issue of ""FBI Soccer Techniques & Information."" In this context, ""+"" represents the home team receiving a handicap, and ""-"" represents the home team giving a handicap.

Initial 0, Final -0.25 (i.e., initial level handicap, final handicap giving half): In the La Liga, the probability of the lower-scoring outcome is 62.05%, with 67 out of 108 matches resulting in lower-scoring outcomes. La Liga, Bundesliga, and Serie A tend to have lower-scoring outcomes, while Ligue 1 has a balanced distribution of higher and lower-scoring outcomes.

Initial 0, Final 0.25 (i.e., initial level handicap, final handicap receiving half): A level handicap is characterized by a very balanced probability distribution between win, draw, and lose. However, when the final handicap changes to receiving half, the probability shifts towards lower-scoring outcomes, with lower-scoring outcomes in the top five leagues averaging around 60%. In the Bundesliga, the probability is as high as 69.47%, followed by La Liga at 65.85%.

Initial 0.25, Final -0.25 & Initial -0.25, Final 0.25: These two scenarios are grouped together because they involve a switch in which team is giving or receiving the handicap between the initial and final odds, creating a significant visual impact. How do these scenarios affect match outcomes?

The scenario of Initial -0.25, Final 0.25 has occurred 15 times in the top five leagues over the past 13 seasons. According to Macau's final odds, the probability of lower-scoring outcomes is 73.33%, with 8 of the matches resulting in a draw.

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