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The latest CFTC CME Bitcoin Positioning Weekly Report, covering the period from September 20th to September 26th, revealed a decrease in the total open interest for Bitcoin standard contracts from 16,670 to 14,844. This decline erased the gains seen in the previous two weeks, marking a new low in open interest over the past 15 reporting periods. During this reporting period, Bitcoin prices continued to fluctuate downward, leading to a rapid decrease in market interest. However, it's worth considering that the market rebounded shortly after this reporting period ended. Therefore, the key focus of this report is to determine which account types made the "correct" bullish choices amid the overall decrease in open interest.
The largest dealer accounts saw a decrease in bullish positions from 620 to 433 and a decrease in bearish positions from 2,111 to 1,859. These accounts reduced both bullish and bearish positions in a synchronized manner during the latest reporting period. Bullish positions notably decreased, reflecting a weakening bullish sentiment from the previous reporting period. In fact, some of these accounts shifted towards a bearish bias, and the prolonged downturn in the market clearly affected their bullish outlook. Large institutions now find themselves in a neutral-to-bearish stance.
Asset manager accounts saw a decrease in bullish positions from 7,392 to 7,168 and an increase in bearish positions from 850 to 1,093. These accounts shifted from a net bullish position to a clear net bearish position during the latest reporting period. This change follows a brief period of bullish sentiment in the previous reporting period and indicates a quick return to the bearish camp. Both categories of large institutions, therefore, turned bearish during the market decline.
Leveraged fund accounts witnessed a decrease in bullish positions from 2,204 to 1,594, marking a new low over the past 67 reporting periods. Bearish positions also decreased from 10,304 to 8,220, hitting a new low over the past 15 reporting periods. These accounts reduced both bullish and bearish positions in a synchronized manner, with particular attention to the significant reduction in bullish positions. These accounts had a bullish bias in the previous reporting period but showed signs of shifting from bullish to bearish during the latest reporting period.
Large trader accounts saw a decrease in bullish positions from 2,763 to 1,852, while bearish positions remained unchanged at 114. This value continues to hover near the lowest levels over the past 137 reporting periods. During this reporting period, large trader accounts shifted to a net bearish position after two consecutive periods of net bullish adjustments.
Retail trader accounts experienced an increase in bullish positions from 1,191 to 1,200 and an increase in bearish positions from 791 to 961. Retail traders increased both bullish and bearish positions simultaneously during the latest reporting period, with a more pronounced increase in bearish positions. Retail trader sentiment also shifted from bullish to bearish.
Bitcoin micro contracts' total open interest increased from 8,102 to 8,690.
Dealer accounts in the micro contracts market increased bullish positions from 298 to 338 and bearish positions from 426 to 435. These accounts increased both bullish and bearish positions simultaneously, with no significant bias in either direction. Their net bullish attitude remained unaffected compared to standard contracts.
Asset manager accounts in the micro contracts market decreased bullish positions from 373 to 319 and bearish positions from 838 to 806. Asset manager accounts reduced both bullish and bearish positions in a synchronized manner.
Leveraged fund accounts in the micro contracts market increased bullish positions from 1,422 to 1,590 and bearish positions from 2,416 to 2,629. These accounts increased both bullish and bearish positions simultaneously, with no meaningful change in the bullish-to-bearish ratio, making it challenging to interpret their sentiment.
Large trader accounts in the micro contracts market increased bullish positions from 2,276 to 2,296, while bearish positions decreased from 1,985 to 1,574. These accounts conducted a net bullish adjustment during the latest reporting period, which, when considering the clear net bearish adjustment in standard contracts, appears to be standard risk-hedging operation.
Retail trader accounts in the micro contracts market decreased bullish positions from 2,432 to 2,202 and increased bearish positions from 1,136 to 1,301. |
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Post time 7-10-2023 06:56:06