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The Baccarat Long-Term Winning Strategy Begins with a Change in Mindset! It is well-known that using the negative progression straight ladder betting strategy in Baccarat ultimately leads to failure, and this "win a candy, lose a factory" suicidal method has been strongly opposed by many experts. Therefore, the concept of "breaking the ladder to win" was proposed by skilled players.
The concept is fully supported, but how to counter it? How many sequences to counter? These are indeed thought-provoking questions. The idea proposed by the "ladder-breaking" player is that as long as they achieve one sequence of six within a shoe, they won't lose. They bet on the banker when they see a banker streak and on the player when they see a player streak. This requires at least seven consecutive winning streaks to win. This process is quite grueling and not something ordinary individuals can endure. If they encounter a shoe where the longest streak is only three, they can lose more than 60 units, and due to limited funds, prolonged losses can affect their mental state and lead to frustration.
Combining the anti-ladder strategy with a cutting-edge tactic can lead to long-term success. We can make a hypothetical calculation: We all know that within a shoe, there are approximately 22 sequences of three. So, we need to win three sequences of three to make a profit. If we assume that we win 124 units when we complete one sequence (assuming a straight ladder betting strategy), and for the 19 sequences that don't complete, we lose 19 units. So, the net profit is 2 units. Of course, this is an ideal scenario from start to finish, and it may be overly optimistic. What if we only complete one sequence? Wouldn't that be a certain loss? Not necessarily. If this one sequence occurs within the first 1-8 sequences and we employ a cutting-edge strategy, we can at least break even or make a small profit (not accounting for the house edge). In theory, in this shoe, we should be down 14 units, but in reality, we may break even. You might ask, "What if none of the sequences complete?" Indeed, if your betting strategy relies on completing three sequences within a shoe and they all fail to complete, it's a significant loss. Anti-ladder players need to find sequences of three that frequently break.
How do you find sequences that frequently break? Based on personal research and insights, I believe there are some clues to look for. What we fear most when playing the ladder strategy is starting a shoe with a losing streak. It can be extremely frustrating because it feels like the shoe will never break, even though we know that it often defies our expectations. However, the shoe eventually breaks, often starting from sequences 1-8 and continues to break, sometimes with consecutive breaks. But there's also an interesting phenomenon: when there's a winning streak, we stop betting after the first win, following the 55-bet rule. Then, a streak of consecutive losses occurs later in the shoe. This means that we win only one unit but lose seven units in the long run, which is not advantageous. Based on this observation, I've come up with a strategy as follows, using a real game example:
Example of sequences: bbp bpb bpp bpb bbp bbp pbb ppb ppb bpb bbb ppb bpb bpb pbp ppb bpb bbb pbp bbp ppb pbp. In this example from an underground casino, the shoe started with bbp. If the ladder player encounters a break in the first hand, they bet on the opposite (ppb). We can see that bbp and ppb keep alternating throughout the entire shoe. This indicates that if the shoe starts with a break, there will likely be a lot more breaks later on. This pattern holds in 80% of cases. If the ladder player refuses to accept the initial loss and increases their bet, they will likely suffer significant losses in the end. Life is fair, but we often lack confidence. When we win, we're satisfied with just one unit, but when we lose, we lose it all. Therefore, negative progression betting is destined to fail.
If we bet on what we see in the first hand, we will have a stable winning shoe. However, this is an ideal scenario. We observe that if the shoe starts with a break, there will be a continuous mix of streaks and non-streaks. Therefore, instead of using the three-sequence anti-ladder strategy, we can switch to a two-sequence anti-ladder strategy. Bet on the same as the first hand and on the opposite if the first hand is the opposite. This way, we can maintain a profitable position in the shoe. The overall situation is calculated as 22-1-8-(8*3)=-11 units. Here, 22 represents the total number of shoes, 1 represents the first hand in a three-sequence, 8 represents the total number of streaks and non-streaks, and 3 represents the profit from the two-sequence anti-ladder.
My personal recommendation is to use the 12-sequence anti-ladder. For example, if the second hand starts with three sequences and opens with 'b,' bet 1 unit on 'b' and stop if you lose. If the third hand starts with 'b,' bet 1 unit on 'b' and stop if you lose. Similarly, continue this pattern. By the seventh sequence, if it starts with 'p,' bet 1 unit on 'p' and stop if you win. |
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Post time 6-10-2023 09:37:10