Baccarat Simplified Card Counting Method

Shri333

I've finally clarified the simplified card counting method in baccarat. Let me organize my thoughts and archive them. The simple and effective running count card counting method doesn't require calculating the true count. We aim to simplify complex logic as much as possible. We start by calculating the running count and remove the effects of unexposed cards at the beginning of each shoe. Unexposed cards are treated as 0 points, and both 0 and 9 points are not involved in the running count calculation. For each removed small card (1, 2, 3, or 4), we add 1 to the running count. For each removed big card (5, 6, 7, or 8), we subtract 1 from the running count. The critical point is when the running count reaches -4. If the running count is -4, -5, -6, etc., we bet on the Player . The further it goes down, the bigger the advantage of betting on the Player. Conversely, if the running count is -3, -2, -1, etc., we bet on the Banker . The further it goes up, the bigger the advantage of betting on the Banker. The overall expected value of continuous betting is -1.01%, which is better than the original probabilities of betting entirely on Banker (-1.06%) or Player (-1.24%). If you want a higher expected value, you can apply further filtering around the -4 running count before placing bets. The more filtering you apply, the more favorable it becomes, but the betting opportunities decrease. Filtering around -4 running count without betting yields a 95.12% hit rate with an expected value of -1%. Filtering -5, -4, -3 running counts without betting yields an 85.37% hit rate with an expected value of 0.99%. The larger the filtering range (e.g., -6 to -2, -7 to -1, -8 to 0), the lower the hit rate and the better the expected value. Filtering with a hit rate below 50% becomes less practical. Knowing the principle of increasing the expected value is essential, and there's a more advanced system that precisely calculates the true count. However, it's quite complex and impractical for manual calculation. If you can develop software to automate this process, it might be worthwhile. Keep in mind that even precise card counting methods can only slightly improve your odds, and it won't change the fact that baccarat has a negative expected value. So, understanding a simple and practical card counting method is sufficient. Most common card counting systems, like adding +2 for 4-point cards and -2 for 6-point cards, provide minimal advantages. Complex precision isn't necessary; what matters is whether it's worth the effort. Card counting can only slightly improve the expected value. To enter with a positive expectation, you'd need to play around 500 hands on average, with a penetration rate of over 95%. The advantage gained is often too marginal to justify the effort. Knowing the principles and using a simple card counting method that removes effects is adequate. Baccarat card counting is all about eliminating effects and comparing probabilities after removing each card. The more small cards (1-4) removed, the more it favors the Banker, while the removal of more big cards (5-8) favors the Player. Not calculating 0 and 9 points is because removing them has an impact on both Player and Banker, but the difference won't be significant. Therefore, they can often be ignored in the calculations.

Jafar224

People who count cards possess a level of intelligence that is beyond ordinary intelligence.

Kahn332

This method is still worth studying and taking a closer look at.