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If you feel that the traditional 1X2 options are limiting for you, you might want to try the "Draw No Bet" (DNB) option. Understand how to calculate it.
What is Draw No Bet (DNB)?
When using 1X2 odds to bet on regular time soccer outcomes, players often seek simpler two-way market options. There are two common choices: Double Chance, which combines home team win and draw or away team win and draw (explained here), or Draw No Bet, which, as the name suggests, removes the draw from the betting options, allowing players to bet on either the home or away team to win. If their team wins, they collect the winnings; if the match ends in a draw, they get their stake back. In comparison, if players bet on the home or away team to win, their wager is determined solely by the result. If the match ends in a draw, they lose the bet. Therefore, logically, the return on Draw No Bet (or the corresponding odds) falls between 1X2 and Double Chance.
Players can combine 1X2 odds just like they bet on Draw No Bet. To do this, they need to use the draw profit to cover the stake for the home team win, so that if the match ends in a draw, their net profit will be zero, effectively achieving the goal they want.
Alternatively, Pinnacle offers multiple Asian handicap options. As explained here, Asian handicap +0.5 is similar to Double Chance, while Asian handicap 0 is called "PK." Draw No Bet has an additional factor that Asian handicap does not have, the opportunity to place value-added bets by betting on peripheral options.
Pinnacle Draw No Bet Example
Let's take an example of using Draw No Bet at Pinnacle. You think Aston Villa is much stronger than Chelsea, and you want to bet 100 euros on Villa to win at odds of 7.790, but you want some insurance to get your stake back if the game ends in a draw. Other bookmakers offer odds of 4.90 and 5.50. This means that a bet of 100 euros on Villa winning would yield winnings between 390 euros and 450 euros. Now, do you want to bet with other bookmakers offering lower odds? Let's analyze.
Pinnacle's odds for Villa to win, as mentioned earlier, are 7.790, the draw is 4.300, and Chelsea to win is 1.518. Can we use these odds to our advantage? In our example, let S represent the bet on Villa to win, and then the draw bet is (100 - S) because we want to bet 100 euros.
If Villa wins, you'll win (7.790 - 1) * S and lose the draw bet, so your net profit is:
(7.790 - 1) * S - (100 - S), or 7.790 * S - 100
If the match ends in a draw, you'll win (4.300 - 1) * (100 - S) - you want the profit to exactly cover the loss of your bet on the home team winning, which is S, so:
(4.300 - 1) * (100 - S) = S
This equation is relatively easy to solve, and S is calculated to be 76.744 euros, which is your bet on the home team to win. The draw bet is (100 - 76.744) = 23.256 euros. Let's look at the result; the draw profit is (4.300 - 1) * 23.256 = 76.745, exactly equal to your loss from betting on the home team to win, so you haven't lost even if it ends in a draw.
Now let's see what happens in this example if Villa beats Chelsea. You win (7.790 - 1) * 76.744 = 521.092 euros, lose the draw bet of 23.256 euros, and your net winnings are 497.84 euros, which is 9% higher than the best industry odds in the market (if you remember, it was 450 euros), and 21% higher than the highest other industry odds. So is it worth the effort to get this much more profit? A 9% to 21% increase in profit is enough to motivate players to calculate these amounts.
From the example above, it's easy to derive a general rule for calculating the bet amounts. If the total amount you want to bet is labeled as "Total Bet," the odds for the home team to win are labeled "Home," and the odds for the away team to win are labeled "Away," and the odds for the draw are labeled "Draw."
(Draw - 1) * (Total Bet - S) = S
This will give you the amount you should bet on the home team winning.
S = Total Bet * (Draw - 1) / Draw
As you can see, the bet depends only on the |
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Post time 26-9-2023 06:55:15