Baccarat - Avoiding Pitfalls and Learning from Mistakes

Ritu77

The First Pitfall: Attack the Shield with the Spear.
How does the house (banker) make money? They make money through the house edge, which is 5% per hand. So, how can I turn the tables and profit from the banker? For example, if I bet on the banker, wouldn't I be favoring the banker? I would keep betting on the banker, and if I lost, I would increase my bet by 6%, then bet again. I used a stair-step approach to win back 1%, plus cashback. Since there's the law of large numbers and zero-sum theory, you can't always bet on the player. When the banker gets hot, my stair-step approach kicks in. With betting limits ranging from $10 to $100,000, they wouldn't bankrupt me, right? I was excited at the thought and believed I had discovered a treasure, thinking that the casino would have to close its doors. Since I didn't have a large dataset to verify this, I decided to put real money on the line and test it myself.

How did it work? It worked quite well. I started with $50,000, and within two weeks, it had grown to over $100,000. I was generating over a million dollars in turnover every week. However, one day at a Boeing casino, there was a prolonged streak of player wins. It seemed like one long streak after another. The player's trend, to put it in terms of chart patterns, was consolidating upwards. It was challenging to believe my eyes. I began to doubt whether the banker was out to get me. I had no choice but to mechanically follow my 6% step approach, and when it reached $11,000 per bet, the cumulative player wins had exceeded the banker's by over a hundred. I lost everything except for a few million in turnover, and in the end, I only got back $20,000 as cashback. In two weeks, my $50,000 had turned into a little over $20,000. I was left with just the cashback. I didn't have the funds to continue, and even if I did, if the player continued to win, I would eventually exceed the $100,000 betting limit. This was the first pitfall I encountered.

Afterward, I validated this approach with data from Happy Lotto. I found that such fluctuations occurred roughly every few thousand rounds. One side would be a couple of hundred units ahead of the other. Looking at the curve, both the upper and lower bounds of the ±200 range were exceeded, meaning a cumulative fluctuation of over 400 units. I realized that even someone like Li Ka-shing wouldn't be able to handle it. I had become a gambling fool.

The Second Pitfall: Safety Lies in the Crater.
Where is the safest place on the battlefield? It's inside the crater. After an explosion, the likelihood of getting hit by another bomb is lower. When a low-probability event occurs, the likelihood of it happening again is reduced. For instance, a 10-in-a-row dragon occurs roughly once every few hundred rounds, maybe around two to three hundred columns or 10 to 8 shoe games. So, after a 10-in-a-row dragon, I would switch to betting on the opposite outcome, a 10-in-a-row tiger, and so on. How did it work? It worked very well, and I accumulated quickly. However, the result was still zero-sum. The shortest period for a 10-in-a-row dragon to appear again is one column. For example, if there is a 10-in-a-row banker streak, and in between, there's a 2-in-a-row player streak, followed by another 10-in-a-row banker streak – isn't that rare? I could only blame myself for not having enough experience. However, this 10-in-a-row would have an interval of at least one column. For example, if there was a 10-in-a-row banker streak, and in between, there was a 2-in-a-row player streak, followed by another 10-in-a-row banker streak – isn't that rare? I could only blame myself for not having enough experience. However, this 10-in-a-row would have an interval of at least one column.

So, how could I improve it? I prepared two cables, with the second one being twice as thick as the first. If I made a mistake, I would continue with the second cable, betting double the amount of my previous loss until I reached the loss from the previous cable. Even if two bombs hit the same crater, the probability of a third bomb hitting the same crater should be even smaller, right? Fortunately, there was plenty of room within the betting limits. Betting with a 10-unit starting point and a 10-unit incremental increase was manageable for two to three levels. The effect was good, but it was still a zero-sum game. After the 10-in-a-row, the shortest period for it to occur again was one column. For example, if there was a 10-in-a-row banker streak, and in between, there was a 2-in-a-row player streak, followed by another 10-in-a-row banker streak – isn't that rare? I could only blame myself for not having enough experience. However, this 10-in-a-row would have an interval of at least one column. So, how could I improve it? I prepared two cables, with the second one being twice as thick as the first. If I made a mistake, I would continue with the second cable, betting double the amount of my previous loss until I reached the loss from the previous cable. Even if two bombs hit the same crater, the probability of a third bomb hitting the same crater should be even smaller, right? Fortunately, there was plenty of room within the betting limits. Betting with a 10-unit starting point and a 10-unit incremental increase was manageable for two to three levels. The effect was good, but it was still a zero-sum game. After the 10-in-a-row, the shortest period for it to occur again was one column. For example, if there was a 10-in-a-row banker streak, and in between, there was a 2-in-a-row player streak, followed by another 10-in-a-row banker streak – isn't that rare? I could only blame myself for not having enough experience. However, this 10-in-a-row would have an interval of at least one column.

So, how could I improve it? I prepared two cables, with the second one being twice as thick as the first. If I made a mistake, I would continue with the second cable, betting double the amount of my previous loss until I reached the loss from the previous cable. Even if two bombs hit the same crater, the probability of a third bomb hitting the same crater should be even smaller, right? Fortunately, there was plenty of room within the betting limits. Betting with a 10-unit starting point and a 10-unit incremental increase was manageable for two to three levels. The effect was good, but it was still a zero-sum game. After the 10-in-a-row, the shortest period for it to occur again was one column.

The Third Pitfall: Pattern Betting
If we consider the various roadmaps (patterns) as fixed combinations instead of chasing after a specific one, could we achieve a success rate of around 50%

Jafar224

Learning the theory will definitely prevent any losses.

Ritu13

It's worth taking a look and paying attention to various methods as well.

Yamini003

Studying the theory and making one's own improvements is the key to becoming even better!

Janak9955

You seem like a player well-versed in theory as well; thanks for sharing.

Shri333

Basic theory is also something worth looking into.