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"Is Positive Win Rate Truly Possible? This question has been the subject of recent debate among players.
Before discussing this issue, it is necessary to provide a definition for this term: simply put, a positive win rate means making a profit from playing baccarat, regardless of whether you call it a positive return rate or something else. The act of betting in baccarat can be divided into two main components:
1. Betting System: This involves deciding whether to bet on the banker or the player for the next hand. Betting systems are associated with hit rates.
2. Wagering System: This involves deciding how many chips to bet on the next hand. Wagering systems are associated with the probability leverage ratio.
Betting System + Wagering System = Betting Method
The impact of the betting system on the win rate is self-evident. No matter how poor (if there is a distinction between good and bad) the wagering system is, if the betting system has a hit rate of 100%, it is definitely a positive win rate. Conversely, no matter how good the wagering system is, if the hit rate of the betting system is 0%, it is definitely a negative win rate.
Of course, some may argue that this example is too extreme, as some wagering systems can profit with a hit rate as low as 40%. Yes, I am aiming to shift the discussion to the wagering system.
Wagering systems can be simplistically divided into three categories:
1. Flat Betting: Its probability leverage ratio is 1:1. When the hit rate is 50%, the win rate is 0. When the hit rate is less than 50%, the win rate is negative. When the hit rate is greater than 50%, the win rate is positive. Essentially, flat betting can also be seen as a cable system, with each hand being a single cable, and this cable only has one level, returning to this level regardless of win or loss. In contrast, no matter what kind of wagering system is used, we can see each cable as one hand.
2. Negative Progression: The probability leverage ratio varies depending on the design of the cable system. However, they all have one thing in common: their probability leverage ratios are magnified, i.e., greater than 50%. Let's take the example of a three-level small straight cable, 1, 2, 4. The probability leverage ratio has increased from 1:1 to 8:1.
As mentioned earlier, we can see each cable as one hand in this case. In this situation, the game becomes an 8-number roulette with each hand being 7 basic units. On the roulette, the odds for 7 numbers are 7:1, while one number is 0:1. As a result, players have a 7/8 chance to bet 7 units and win 1 unit each time, with a 1/8 chance of losing 7 units.
In fact, this roulette can also be understood as having 8 numbers, each with odds of 1:8. Betting is similar to betting on a large group of numbers, where all seven numbers are bet on. Therefore, = 1X7/8, but if the shot goes through the hole, the loss is 7X1/8. The understanding of these two scenarios is the same. This is the principle of losing small factories and winning a piece of candy.
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Post time 15-9-2023 11:10:53
