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Winning in football betting depends on capturing advantages or betting with the trend of value. However, many people often overlook or disregard this and engage in blind betting. Under a long period of betting disadvantage, they suffer heavy losses. There are indeed many correct betting methods, and their core lies in risk control and seeking stable profits. One of the must-lose betting methods that many bettors are still unaware of includes:
1. Blind Martingale Betting without a Plan:
Regarding Martingale betting, the key points are the capital for Martingale, the planning period, and the stop-loss. Many people use a 2-leg parlay with Martingale but often neglect the stop-loss, leading to a complete loss of capital and profits in the event of a breakdown in a long-term betting process. From a certain perspective, Martingale can be seen as a short-term speculative behavior and is not suitable for long-term football betting. The simple reason is that continuous breakdowns are inevitable in long-term betting, making it difficult for bettors to bear the psychological pressure and fund requirements of consecutive breakdowns. In other words, have you ever seen anyone profitably sustain Martingale for more than two months? Martingale can be a short-term attempt driven by a whim but should not involve too much capital.
2. Betting on Strong Teams in Parlays without Considering Matches:
Some bettors choose to bet on low-odds parlay with several strong team matches in one day, giving them a false illusion that the difference in probability between one team winning and multiple teams winning is not significant. However, this is the least desirable approach. From a statistical perspective, the probability of all top favorites winning in one round of the top five leagues is relatively low. Commonly seen parlay bets involve bundling matches with odds around 1.2, selecting four matches to bet, which results in a combined odds of around 2.0. From the perspective of odds alone, it may seem easier to win. However, incorrect intuition often leads to a vicious cycle of fund loss. From the perspective of the return rate, the overall return for a 4-leg low-odds parlay may be less than 70%. Long-term betting will inevitably create a significant disadvantage.
3. Neglecting Handicaps and Chasing Teams in Good Form:
Team form is an important reference for football betting, but in some league matches, there may be situations where a team in good form coincides with a favorable handicap, leading to most individual bettors concentrating their bets on the team with both good form and favorable handicap. The outcome is often less than ideal because teams in poor form may still win or cover the spread. This is commonly referred to as a "trap" or manipulated odds. For example, in a recent A-League match, Central Coast Mariners vs. Adelaide United, comparing the two teams' recent form, Central Coast Mariners had a clear advantage, with a stable performance in their last three matches, including a 2-0 home win against a strong opponent, Sydney FC. On the other hand, Adelaide United had suffered three consecutive losses. Despite this, the handicap offered Central Coast Mariners a level ball or even Adelaide United as the favorite. Choosing between backing the home team or taking the underdog with a handicap made for an uncomfortable decision. In the end, Central Coast Mariners lost 1-2 to Adelaide United, and Adelaide United covered the handicap. For such matches, the correct choice is to avoid betting or to be cautious. Uncertain games with ambiguous handicaps that lean heavily on one side often have the highest degree of randomness and require careful consideration. Football betting requires continuous summarization and understanding of the bookmaker's trading strategies. It's important to abandon incorrect betting methods to succeed with a clear and well-thought-out approach. |
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Post time 14-9-2023 07:26:21