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Price reactions typically don't happen immediately. The major growth post-halving occurs 18 to 24 months later, and as the market matures, statistically, the likelihood of significant price fluctuations diminishes, said Rikke Staer, CEO of payment solutions platform Coinify.
Brian Dixon, CEO of hedge fund Off the Chain Capital, also agrees with this view, stating that the price will begin to rise within 12 to 18 months.
The halving event coincides with a significant increase in institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market. The launch of new physically settled Bitcoin ETFs has attracted a new generation of retail investors to the asset. Alex Cable, Vice President for the WEMEA region at blockchain analytics company Chainalysis, pointed out that after each halving event, the proportion of Bitcoin held by institutional investors increases. "Institutions are not only entering the market, but they are now shaping the market process," Cable said.
Although it is widely believed that the price of Bitcoin will eventually rise, market observers believe that short-term prices will decline. This is because the current market conditions are different from previous halving events. Some analysts suggest that investors may sell their Bitcoin holdings when halving occurs, a phenomenon known as "selling the news" event. Jag Kooner, Derivatives Head at Bitfinex, suggests that this is especially the case if market sentiment is negatively impacted by external factors such as escalated tensions in the Middle East. |
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