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Are institutional investors pausing their Bitcoin purchases?
Stockmoney Lizards analysts stated in an X post that Bitcoin's recent trend of ups and downs aligns with the Wyckoff analysis method.
The recent price fluctuations of Bitcoin resemble the trends typically seen in the formation process of the Wyckoff distribution model, and as of April 17th, BTC has entered the "weakness signs" stage of this pattern.
This stage indicates a decrease in demand, which in turn leads to a decline in assets. StockMoney Lizards believes that, in the case of Bitcoin, the insufficient demand is due to the Federal Reserve's long-standing high interest rate policies and the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, which have led to increasing risk aversion sentiment.
Analysts believe that "major institutions have currently paused their purchases" and added, "ETF inflows are at an unprecedented low. Our speculation is that they sense difficult times may be ahead in the market."
Data from Farside Investors shows that since the outbreak of the conflict between Iran and Israel on April 12th, nearly $150 million has flowed out of the US spot Bitcoin ETF.
Stronger dollar = weaker encryption
At a time when Bitcoin and the broader financial markets are weak, the dollar has experienced its best five-day gain since February, rising more than 2% since April 10th. As of writing, the DXY trading price is 106.23, the highest level since November 2nd.
Historically, higher interest rates have led investors to seek higher returns on US Treasuries and term deposits, increasing demand for the dollar, as reflected in the recent rise in the US dollar index.
Market analyst Bitcoin Schmitcoin pointed out on the X platform that the DXY index has an inverse relationship with the encryption market.
He believes: "Bull market in cryptocurrencies = bear market in DXY; bear market in cryptocurrencies = bull market in DXY; top of cryptocurrency = bottom of DXY; bottom of cryptocurrency = top of DXY. Although the DXY is consolidating, it is an indicator of the volatility of cryptocurrencies/stocks."
This raises the question: Will the halving become a selling news event?
Bitcoin Schmitcoin said: We see that major stock markets may be forming tops, and after clearing a decade-long consolidation, the US dollar gold is showing huge strength. All of this indicates that we are starting to see investors turning to hedge mechanisms to deal with macro uncertainty. The surge in the DXY is because people are seeking cash instead of assets. People buy gold because they hedge. This is not a good sign, although I really want to be bullish on BTC, it's really hard for me to stay in the bullish camp. Remember my words: if the US dollar index starts to rise, everything else will fall as a result. |
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