Understanding Odds

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Understanding Odds

The origin of odds dates back to Europe, with the invention credited to the British in 1790 by a man named Ogden. Odds-based gameplay is common in Europe, often referred to as European odds or "decimal odds." This format is not limited to football betting but extends to various sports and events. In football betting, European odds can indicate different odds for the outcome of a match—win, draw, or loss—as well as odds for league or cup victories and even specific player performance. For instance, in a match between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, William Hill might offer odds of 4.33 for Atletico Madrid to win, 3.40 for a draw, and 1.66 for Real Madrid to win. This means that Atletico Madrid winning has the highest odds at 4.33, while a victory for Real Madrid has the lowest odds at 1.66. Lower odds imply a higher probability of occurrence, but it's important to note that higher probability doesn't guarantee victory; draws and losses are equally possible, albeit less frequent. The odds are determined based on the strengths of the teams and other factors affecting the outcome of the match, such as form, home advantage, and other relevant conditions. However, it's worth noting that if there's a significant bias in betting, bookmakers will adjust the odds accordingly.

Due to geographical and traditional factors, European betting companies often have comprehensive and unique access to match data that ordinary players cannot match. Therefore, European odds are usually the primary reference for experienced bettors to judge match outcomes. In most cases, initial odds can objectively reflect the likelihood of a match ending in a win, draw, or loss.

How Odds are Calculated

European odds, compared to Asian handicap odds, closely match the pattern of football betting, making them more intuitive and precise for guiding football betting. European odds straightforwardly reflect the probabilities of both teams winning, drawing, or losing. They are easy to understand, operate practically, and can theoretically explain the essence of football betting.

The calculation of odds follows a formula and involves analyzing various data and information about the teams involved, such as recent form, injuries, head-to-head records, home and away performances, and club dynamics. After estimating the probabilities of the three possible outcomes—win, draw, and loss—a formula is applied to determine the corresponding odds. This formula involves:

a÷b=c
c-c×10%=d

Where:
- a represents the base number for calculating the percentage probability (usually 100).
- b represents the percentage probability calculated by the bookmaker's analysts.
- c is the result of dividing a by b.
- d is the final calculated odds after adjusting for profit margins.

For example, if a bookmaker determines that Juventus has a win probability of around 40% in a Serie A match against AC Milan, the calculation would proceed as follows:

Step 1: 100÷40=2.5
Step 2: 2.5-2.5×10%=2.25

Therefore, the odds for Juventus winning would be approximately 2.25. The process would be similar for calculating the odds for a draw or AC Milan's victory. After setting the odds, bookmakers may adjust them based on team news and betting patterns. Some matches may experience significant odds changes due to these factors, while others may remain relatively stable.

Indra55

Great article! It was really enlightening and beneficial to read.