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Has anyone ever wondered what the actual circulating supply of BTC is?
Can spot ETFs really buy out the circulation?
Currently, a total of 19,654,193 BTC have been mined, but how many have been lost or forgotten?
About 32.18% of Bitcoin has moved in the last year, totaling 6,324,719 BTC. This figure represents the Bitcoin involved in transactions over the past year.
Then there's the total amount of Bitcoin held by exchanges, which is now over 1.8 million.
In the past two months, ETFs have increased their holdings by over 200,000, with the current total holdings being over 800,000.
MicroStrategy holds over 200,000 BTC, and various national governments hold or confiscate BTC. Of course, not all of these held BTC have moved within the past year, but there's certainly overlap with exchange-held BTC.
So, based on the roughly 6 million actively circulating BTC in the past year, it's not unreasonable to estimate around 5 million BTC (assuming a conservative 20% reduction) that have been actively traded.
Based on a price of $70,000 per BTC, and assuming no change in price, it would only take $3.5 trillion to buy all the currently circulating BTC. Over the past two months, ETFs have already seen a net inflow of over $10 billion, not including the issuance of USDT.
So theoretically, if the price of BTC doesn't continue to rise, it's only a matter of time until all BTC are bought up. And if BTC were to fall without any major negative events in the US, like a recession, it would only accelerate the pace at which traditional capital buys up BTC. (Previously it was $70,000 each, inexplicably it had a pullback, crashed, and now it only takes $50,000 each).
This is why I have this somewhat conspiratorial belief that the daytime rallies we've seen recently are due to the FOMO sentiment induced by people in the cryptocurrency community seeing BlackRock buying so much after the ibit data comes out.
So in summary, the only metric to focus on in the cryptocurrency market right now is the flow of funds into ETFs (other metrics are paper tigers, just like focusing on Grayscale's BTC inflows and USDT issuance in 2021). If there's a noticeable slowdown in inflows for several days in a row, watch out for a pullback. And if there's a significant pullback but no significant increase in inflows, be even more cautious.
The conclusion is simple: as long as ETF inflows continue, BTC will keep rising. Unless sentiment goes crazy and it rises too much in a short period, in which case the excessive rise will retrace.
A recession, on the other hand, remains a nuclear-level bearish factor for BTC and the global market. It directly affects market sentiment and can even turn ETF inflows into outflows. (Now it's not like three years ago when BTC bought by Grayscale could only be converted into GBTC and traded within its own pool, eventually resulting in a near-50% negative premium by the end of 2022). When that happens, it will be the time for a trend reversal.
For ordinary market participants like us, if such an opportunity arises again, please cherish the opportunity to buy cheap BTC! |
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Post time 1-4-2024 21:13:10