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The next virtual currency ETF will be hosted by whom? Congratulations on the approval of the Bitcoin ETF. This is a landmark event. This means that virtual currencies have officially entered the realm of pension assets, and in the future, American 401k pensions can smoothly invest in Bitcoin. Looking back at my previous articles on Bitcoin ETFs, my view on the approval of Bitcoin ETFs is: approval is only a matter of time. Along with CZ's ruling, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF will usher in an era of blockchain compliance.
In recent days, there has been much criticism of the SEC and Gary Gensler. Although everyone has indeed been waiting too long, we also need to understand the SEC and Gary Gensler: in their positions, they must bear significant responsibilities. During his tenure at MIT, Gary Gensler did not have much conflict of interest with Bitcoin, so he could remain neutral and openly express his fondness for Bitcoin. However, in the position of SEC chairman, such a crucial position, he must consider the potential impact of his statements and the significant market volatility his decisions may cause. Therefore, although he ultimately voted in favor, providing the crucial vote of 3:2, facilitating the crucial victory of the SEC's voting committee, he also repeatedly stated his concerns about the risks, hoping that people would not over-speculate. This is because the potential impact of this decision in the future is too significant and unpredictable. The Pandora's box is opened by his hands, and it is natural for him to be cautious.
But the SEC will definitely approve it because Bitcoin represents the interests of the vast majority of people. The SEC is more like a responsible gatekeeper. The job of this gatekeeper is very important, but he still serves the interests of the master. As long as there is enough time to inflate the forces supporting Bitcoin to the critical point, then the approval of the SEC will be a matter of course, a natural process of ripening.
Although the Bitcoin ETF has been approved, it is still necessary to discuss the issues of Bitcoin here. The distribution of Bitcoin itself is fair, but Bitcoin itself is unfair over time. For example, a person born in the 1990s may have accumulated a large amount of Bitcoin when it was only worth tens of dollars, while a person born in the 2000s may find it difficult to own even one Bitcoin because the price has risen thousands of times. We should recognize a fact: each era will have its own Bitcoin, just as each era will have its own opportunities. Next, we and institutions must face a problem: to discover the next Bitcoin, or more accurately, the next virtual asset to enter the US ETF market.
A few judgments:
1. The next Bitcoin ETF is highly likely to emerge from PoW projects that have no pre-mining, no team allocation, fair distribution, complete decentralization, dispersed token holdings, and have accumulated enough time. The path of this commodity ETF launched by Bitcoin proves feasible and reasonable. The steps for PoW projects to enter the US ETF market are as follows: listing on Coinbase, trading on CB for a sufficient period of time, then becoming a variety held and traded by enough US institutions, and finally entering the US ETF market. This process will be lengthy, and there will not be another virtual currency ETF in the short term. Gary Gensler made it very clear: "It should in no way signal the Commission’s willingness to approve listing standards for crypto asset securities. Nor does the approval signal anything about the Commission’s views as to the status of other crypto assets under the federal securities laws or about the current state of non-compliance of certain crypto asset market participants with the federal securities laws." In other words, a big hole has been torn open, and everyone can give up hope in the near future.
2. The prospect of PoS entering the ETF is bleak. There are two insurmountable weaknesses of PoS: 1. Whether it is considered a security. Although Ethereum has not been explicitly classified as a security, Gensler has emphasized more than once that PoS meets the conditions of a security in the Howey test and is an investment tool in itself. "As I’ve said in the past, and without prejudging any one crypto asset, the vast majority of crypto assets are investment contracts and thus subject to the federal securities laws." Due to Ethereum's pioneering in smart contracts, which has promoted the technological progress of the entire industry, the SEC does not want to throw out the baby with the bathwater and chooses to handle it ambiguously, but there is no further room for maneuver in such a fuzzy zone in the future; 2. How to bear the risks generated by staking. During staking, once a mistake occurs, there may be penalties and losses on the deposited principal. For a product like ETF, which inherently prefers low risk, this is an unbearable burden. Returning to Commissioner Caroline A. Crenshaw's opposition to the Bitcoin ETF: "I am concerned that these products will flood the markets and land squarely in the retirement accounts of U.S. households who can least afford to lose their savings to the fraud and manipulation that appears prevalent in the spot bitcoin markets and will impact the ETPs." Let's be honest, how many blockchain projects can meet this requirement?
3. Bitcoin will be integrated into the mainstream financial system in the future. The advantage is that it will rise quickly, but the disadvantage is that it will also fall quickly. We should be optimistic in the long run and realize how valuable it will be in the next decade. But there is no need for FOMO; today will not be the last day Bitcoin sees $40,000. Everything is just beginning, and the real excitement is yet to come. |
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Post time 24-3-2024 13:32:37