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Hashnote's founder and CEO, Leo Mizuhara, stated, "I don't think it's crazy for Bitcoin to reach $80,000 by the end of the month. I expect FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) investors to join soon. ETFs have opened the door for more retail investors."
In fact, in the options market, there is ongoing enthusiasm for bullish options betting on Bitcoin surpassing $80,000 or even $100,000. According to data compiled by Amberdata, the open interest contracts for Bitcoin call options with strike prices of $80,000 and $100,000 have surged by approximately 12% in the past 24 hours.
Compared to the previous historic high reached by Bitcoin earlier this week, the recent shift in positions has indeed sparked the possibility of a more sustained uptrend. The volatility and leverage rates in the options and futures markets are lower, indicating that Friday's price increase is more driven by demand in the spot market. Retail investors tend to buy tokens in the spot market rather than using derivatives that contribute to higher leverage.
Luke Nolan, research assistant at cryptocurrency asset management company CoinShares, pointed out that the current rise in the price of Bitcoin appears to be more driven by the spot market.
Looking at the reasons behind this round of Bitcoin's upward trend, the traditional law of supply and demand seems to be the most frequently mentioned factor by industry insiders. The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by the U.S. SEC in January led to a surge in demand for Bitcoin. Data shows that since trading began on January 11, the net inflow of funds into nine new Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached about $10 billion. This inflow prompted these funds to purchase Bitcoin to meet the demand, thereby driving up the price.
On the supply side, the computer code supporting Bitcoin sets a hard limit of 21 million coins. Over 90% of the supply has already been mined. To increase the supply, computers run algorithms to "mine" new coins, but only about 900 new Bitcoins can be mined per day. It is expected that after the upcoming cyclical event known as the "halving" next month, this rate will further decrease.
Some analysts state that acquiring Bitcoin from investors holding large amounts of it has become increasingly challenging. Analyst Manuel Villegas from Swiss private bank Pictet said in a research report last week that about 80% of Bitcoin supply has not changed hands in the past six months. Combined with ETF inflows and data showing limited available Bitcoin inventory on exchanges for sale, this "may intensify supply constraints."
Alex Thorn, research director at Galaxy Digital, said, "Bitcoin is currently one of the world's scarcest assets and is becoming increasingly scarce. With the price continuing to rise, the Matthew effect, where the strong get stronger, has begun to play out in recent weeks, attracting more and more investors." A group of cartoons within the industry vividly depicts that when the price was stuck at $25,000, Bitcoin was ignored; now, after surpassing $65,000, there is a long line at Bitcoin's door. |
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Post time 18-3-2024 09:35:14