|
|
Over the past six years from 2018 to 2024, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has been fearful for 54.7% of the time, greedy for 32.0% of the time, and neutral for the remaining 13.3% of the time. During this period, the average Fear and Greed Index score was 45, indicating that the cryptocurrency market's optimistic sentiment cycles are shorter compared to the cycles of panic and negative sentiment, or that the expectations of a rising market are more short-lived than bearish expectations. It is noteworthy that the Fear and Greed Index tracked more bearish years than bullish ones.
Recently, from November 2023 to February 2024, the Fear and Greed Index in the cryptocurrency market did not show any "fear" sentiment for four consecutive months. Whether the cryptocurrency market will continue to experience bullish sentiment remains to be seen, at least until the Bitcoin halving in April.
Three years ago, during the period from November 2020 to February 2021, the Fear and Greed Index approached this record when Bitcoin first rose above $40,000. At that time, consecutive days of greed were broken by a single day of fear, as Bitcoin experienced a slight pullback before reaching new highs.
Cryptocurrency Winter from 2018 to 2019
During the cryptocurrency bear market from 2018 to 2019, the Fear and Greed Index recorded the second and third-highest number of days in the "fear" sentiment range.
In 2018, out of the tracked 334 cryptocurrency markets, 288 days (86.2%) experienced overwhelming fear, with almost equal days of extreme fear (42.2%) and just fear (44.0%). The total cryptocurrency market capitalization reached a new peak of $0.85 trillion on January 7, then collapsed due to the burst of the ICO bubble, falling to $0.13 trillion by the end of the year.
The cryptocurrency bear market continued into 2019, with 216 days (59.2%) showing concern in the Fear and Greed Index. Despite this, there was a slight recovery in market sentiment in the middle of the year, recording 121 days of greed (33.2%), an improvement from the previous year.
Complete Cycle of Fear and Greed in the Cryptocurrency Market
The emotional mix in 2020 was more balanced, with fear sentiment at 46.2% and greed sentiment at 39.1%, reflecting market consolidation and steady recovery. Especially in the second half of the year, during the DeFi summer, the cryptocurrency market experienced 80 days (21.9% of the year) of extreme greed and 0 days of extreme fear.
In the bull market of 2021, the cryptocurrency market had the greediest year so far, with 199 days (54.5%) in a state of greed out of 365 days. The Fear and Greed Index also recorded an overnight high of 40 points, rising from 38 points (fear) on March 1 to 78 points (extreme greed) the next day. This year, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose from $0.78 trillion to $2.31 trillion, with Bitcoin reaching new highs, surpassing $69,000.
The cryptocurrency market thrived in the first quarter of 2021, experiencing greed for 96.7% of the time. However, the sentiment became more complex in the following quarters, possibly due to market volatility leading to pullbacks.
The cryptocurrency sentiment in 2022 formed a stark contrast, as the market was almost fearful throughout the year, with 343 days (94.0%) in fear. The number of days of extreme fear was 207, surpassing the 136 days recorded in just fear. Despite the NFT reaching new highs in native cryptocurrency form, the cryptocurrency market experienced only 3 days of greed and no extreme greed.
Even in the first quarter, when cryptocurrency advertisements prominently featured in the US Super Bowl, the cryptocurrency market was in fear for 83.3% of the time. This situation increased each quarter: fear sentiment accounted for 93.4% in the second quarter, then rose to 98.9% in the third quarter due to escalating contagion and worsening overall market conditions, reaching 100.0% in the fourth quarter with the collapse of FTX. |
|
Post time 16-3-2024 09:16:48