|
|
On March 1st, according to a report from the Financial Times, the price of Bitcoin reached a new record high in terms of its exchange rate against many currencies.
The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States has fueled market enthusiasm. The anticipation of the upcoming halving of Bitcoin mining output at the end of April has intensified market frenzy. The expected increase in demand from buyers for the next halving explains why the cryptocurrency bull market is now optimistically predicting that the price of Bitcoin will soon surpass $100,000.
Upon closer inspection, this bullish target seems somewhat suspicious. According to estimates from JPMorgan, the current production cost—primarily used for short-term jumps—has risen to around $50,000. However, the recent surge has pushed the price of Bitcoin well beyond the production cost. For Bitcoin, this situation is not sustainable. Furthermore, these costs should start to decline shortly after the halving as inefficient miners exit the market and cannot keep up with the pace. As outdated equipment is phased out, the hash rate should decrease, and production costs will also decrease. At some point, the momentum of price increases will likely slow down. Assuming mining capacity drops by one-fifth, production costs would correspondingly decrease to around $43,000. |
|
Post time 13-3-2024 07:19:03