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1. The year passed in the blink of an eye. For the cryptocurrency market, unlike the thrilling ups and downs of the previous year, this year, after experiencing a sluggish bear market for most of the year, finally saw a bottom rebound at the end of the year.
2. Looking at the external environment, the tightening macroeconomic expectations have finally seen a slowdown, and the accompanying expectations of interest rate cuts are touching the market's nerves. From a compliance perspective, despite several major exchanges being sued by the SEC this year, the frenzy of spot ETFs is still difficult to stop, highlighting the price support effect and boosting industry confidence for the coming year. In terms of the internal environment, the Bitcoin halving has arrived as scheduled, gradually fueling speculation about the bull market.
3. It can be seen that whether it is externally driven or internal growth, 2024 seems to be better than 2023.
4. In response to this, institutions that have been silent for a long time have also begun to issue forecasts for next year, analyzing possible trends in price, market, applications, and regulations.
5. **ETF and Price:**
- VanEck: It is expected that over $2.4 billion will flow into newly approved U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first quarter of 2024, driving up Bitcoin prices. Although there is a possibility of significant volatility, Bitcoin prices in the first quarter of 2024 are unlikely to fall below $30,000.
- Bitwise: Bitcoin's performance in 2023 outperformed all major asset classes, rising 128%, while the S&P 500 had a return rate of 21%, gold's return rate was 12%, and bonds' return rate was 2%. This trend is expected to continue in 2024, with Bitcoin's trading price exceeding $80,000 and reaching a new all-time high.
- Gemini: Within a year of the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise by 123%. The increase in Bitcoin holdings after approval may drive price movements.
- JPMorgan: Depending on the actual interest rate of the U.S. Treasury's Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) staying at the level of 2.5%, Bitcoin's value could reach $41,553 by 2025. If the real interest rate falls to the -2% level of 2021, Bitcoin could see a surge of up to 175%, reaching $96,210.
- Matrixport: By January 2024, we expect the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to approve a Bitcoin ETF, with trading expected to begin in February or March.
6. **About the Halving:**
- VanEck: The fourth Bitcoin halving will take place in April 2024 without a major fork. With the halving of new coin issuance, unprofitable miners will exit, giving market share to those with low-cost electricity. After a brief consolidation (lasting from a few days to a few weeks) following the halving, Bitcoin will rise to over $48,000, the neckline position of the head and shoulders pattern completed in April 2022. Overall, the performance of Bitcoin miners will be lower than before the halving, but low-cost miners like CLSK and RIOT will stand out. After the halving, we expect at least one publicly listed miner to achieve a tenfold growth by the end of 2024.
- JPMorgan: Driven by the EIP-4844 upgrade and Protodanksharding, Ethereum's performance in 2024 will surpass that of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
7. **Market Trends:**
- VanEck: The market share of decentralized exchanges (DEX) in spot trading will reach a historic high. At the same time, wallets combining "account abstraction" will facilitate automatic payment functions, driving more user on-chain activity and self-management of assets. As the market dominance of Bitcoin and Ethereum may decline after the Bitcoin halving, long-tail assets may grow more noticeably, and DEXs actively listing new tokens will gain an advantage.
- Following a settlement of over $4 billion with U.S. regulators, Binance will lose its position as the top-ranked centralized exchange in terms of trading volume. OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget will become well-funded competitors and may vie for the top position.
8. **About Applications:**
- A16z: More and more well-known brands have begun to launch digital assets to mainstream consumers in the form of NFTs. By 2024, the widespread presence of NFTs as digital brand assets will become a common condition.
- A16z: The rise of modular technology stacks, the biggest advantage of open-source, modular technology stacks is that they unlock permissionless innovation, allow participants to focus on specific areas, and incentivize more competition. As developers and security experts widely adopt tools inspired by formal methods, we can expect the next wave of smart contract protocols to be more robust and less susceptible to costly hacks.
- Bitwise: RWA will usher in a new trend, driven by demand from Wall Street, JPMorgan will tokenize funds and bring them on-chain.
9. **Stablecoins Taking Off?:**
- Bitwise: Stablecoins are one of the killer applications of cryptocurrencies. Over the past four years, the |
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Post time 23-12-2023 21:03:47