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Today, we will introduce some scientifically simple handicap analysis techniques to help you master handicap analysis.
1. Characteristics of Different Leagues:
Leagues from different regions have different characteristics, and teams play differently. Some leagues emphasize offense, leading to more goals scored, while others are more stable and conservative, resulting in fewer goals.
Here's a simple summary of goal-scoring tendencies in different leagues:
High-scoring leagues: J-League, K-League, Swiss Super League, Norwegian Eliteserien, Finnish Veikkausliiga, Bundesliga, Hungarian NB I, Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie, Brasileirão.
Neutral-scoring leagues: Premier League, Championship, La Liga, 2. Bundesliga, Austrian Bundesliga, Danish Superliga, Argentine Primera División, MLS.
Low-scoring leagues: A-League, Ligue 1, Ligue 2, Serie A, Serie B, Romanian Liga I, Russian Premier League, Segunda División.
2. Common Reference Indicators:
* Match Importance: The importance of a match can affect a team's intent and ranking. In general, during crucial stages of league competitions where teams are fighting for titles or avoiding relegation, top teams may invest more in attacking and scoring goals to secure points, increasing the likelihood of high-scoring matches. On the other hand, some teams may adopt a pragmatic approach to maintain their ranking. They prioritize not conceding goals over scoring, leading to lower-scoring matches.
* Injury Situation: Injuries to key players in a team's lineup can directly impact the number of goals scored. When a team's primary striker is injured, their offensive capability may decrease, leading to fewer goals. Additionally, injuries to a team's defensive players can create vulnerabilities, increasing the opponent's chances of scoring. In the absence of key players, coaches may make significant tactical adjustments, altering the team's playing style and affecting the number of goals.
* Recent Goal Scoring: Many teams exhibit different characteristics at various stages of a season, and their performance may not be consistent throughout. If two teams have been scoring and conceding many goals in recent matches, it suggests they are focusing on offense but have defensive vulnerabilities, increasing the likelihood of high-scoring games. Conversely, if both teams have been involved in low-scoring matches recently, it could indicate an emphasis on defense or a lack of attacking prowess, making low-scoring games more likely.
3. Estimating Goals Using Formulas:
Before a match, you can calculate your own estimated goal totals and compare them with the bookmaker's odds to gauge the expectedness of the handicap. How can you roughly calculate the expected goal totals?
Expected Goals = (Goals scored and conceded in recent matches + Goals scored and conceded at home and away in recent matches) / Total number of games considered.
This formula takes into account recent attacking and defensive performances of both teams. It includes goals scored and conceded by the home team in their home matches and the away team in their away matches. The resulting average represents the expected goals.
It's important to note that the closer a match is to the present, the more similar the teams' fundamental factors are likely to be. Therefore, when calculating head-to-head data, we often consider the most recent two matches. The formula's output can indicate whether the bookmaker's odds are significantly skewed and provide a good prediction for the handicap. However, in major matches, teams may become more conservative, so some adjustments to the formula's results may be necessary.
After understanding the above content, you have a basic understanding of handicaps and preliminary concepts of handicap analysis. It's recommended to pay attention to handicaps in the early stages, engage in practical analysis, and review past experiences. You can also refer to expert analyses on platforms like NetEase Lottery to help you improve quickly. Additionally, we need to remind you that unauthorized sports betting is not only illegal but also carries significant financial risks, and safety cannot be guaranteed. Gambling can be addictive, and players can lose large sums of money. It's essential to choose safer and legal national lotteries. While they may not offer over/under betting, the total goals and score predictions in lotteries are closely related to over/under betting. Learning how to analyze handicaps can help you succeed in these games. Best of luck during the World Cup! |
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Post time 17-10-2023 10:42:34