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Edited by Janak9955 at 7-10-2023 05:28 AM
What is a betting method? What is a betting progression? The truth about progressions.
When it comes to bankroll management, we should start from the basics and understand what a betting method is and what a betting progression is. Betting progression is often referred to as 'Martingale' , but the names may vary. In its simplest form, a progression can be as simple as +1-2-4-8, or the reverse -1-2-4-8, and any other complex variations are derived from this basic structure, with different numerical ratios.
Methods like ladder betting, parlay, win progressions, loss chasing, and layering are all based on similar principles. The key question is whether betting methods or progressions can change the expected value (-EV) outcome. To answer this question, one should analyze the win-loss patterns and probability distribution charts, which reveal the underlying truths.
For example, some people claim that using a 4-level progression, they can win as long as they win within 4 bets, which means they only need a 25% win rate to profit. While this claim is theoretically correct, the reality may differ. It's essential to analyze the probability distribution of outcomes in these 4 bets to understand the true nature of the progression.
There are 16 different combinations in 4 bets, resulting in a total of 64 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own frequency, and by examining these frequencies, we can calculate the average bet size. The key point is that no matter how complex a progression may seem, it ultimately boils down to its average bet size.
For example, if we use a simple +1-2-4-8 progression, the average bet size would be 1.75 units. Understanding the relationship between the frequency of outcomes and the average bet size is crucial in demystifying betting progressions.
In the long run, the outcome of betting methods and progressions is determined by the accumulation of results. Whether you have a positive or negative edge, as you place more bets, the results will start reflecting that edge more clearly. Therefore, one should approach betting with rationality and avoid any unfounded beliefs.
In conclusion, betting methods, including progressions, are ultimately equivalent to flat betting and do not inherently change the expected outcome. All results are subject to the laws of probability, and in the long term, any illusions of winning due to small bets in progressions are dispelled. |
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Post time 7-10-2023 05:24:47