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Edited by Kapil334 at 27-12-2023 06:34 AM
The ""Four-Two Rule"" is a method for estimating probabilities that allows you to quickly calculate the likelihood of getting the cards you need.
For example: If the cards on the table are A-6-7-Q, and your hand consists of 8-9, and you need a 5 or a 10 to complete a straight, but you have only one more round to go.
To calculate the probability strictly in poker terms:
- There are 52 cards in a deck, with 3 cards on the flop, 1 on the turn, and 2 in your hand, leaving 52-3-1-2 = 46 cards remaining.
- You want 4 cards of 5 and 4 cards of 10, totaling 8 cards.
- So, at this point, the probability of getting a straight on the river is 8/46 = 0.1739, which is approximately 17%.
You might find this calculation a bit cumbersome, which is why the Four-Two Rule was developed:
- You want 8 cards (4+4).
- With only one round left, you multiply 8 by 2, which equals 16. This means you have approximately a 16% chance of hitting a straight, which is close to the 17% calculated above.
This is the ""Two"" in the Four-Two Rule.
Of course, if you have two more rounds to go, like the river and turn:
For example, if the flop shows A-6-7, and your hand is still 8-9, but you have two rounds left to get a 5 or a 10 (8 cards in total):
- The probability of hitting a straight in two rounds is calculated as: 1 - (47-8)/47 * (46-8)/46 = 0.3145, which is approximately 31%.
Using the Four-Two Rule, you would multiply 8 by 4 (8*4), giving you approximately 32%. This is close to the theoretical value.
This is the ""Four"" in the Four-Two Rule.
In summary, you first determine the number of cards you need, and if you have two rounds left, you multiply by 4; if you have one round left, you multiply by 2 to estimate the probability of getting the cards you need. Then, based on the actual poker game and the circumstances, you decide your next move. Utilizing the Four-Two Rule can help you quickly estimate probabilities in poker. |
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Post time 19-9-2023 16:21:08