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"**Translation:**
**1. How to Identify a Draw**
- Draws can be identified in several ways. First, when there is a clear draw (1) odds in the bookmakers' listings (I won't go into details here, as discussing it too much might affect my betting direction). This type of draw is usually more stable than many other high odds such as 3. Second, when the draw odds are not clear and it's difficult to judge, you need to rely on the overall trend. For example, if a team like Tottenham only has a single possible result (1), it's likely a draw. Third, when the odds for 3 and 0 are not clear and the draw is purely speculative. These kinds of matches happen regularly. Understanding these three types of draw scenarios provides a clear direction for analysis: which draws are predictable, which draws are not, and which draws can be skipped (e.g., when both 3 and 1 are possible outcomes).
**2. After Confirming the Presence or Absence of a Draw**
- As I mentioned a few days ago in a chat with a friend, your approach to matches with draws differs significantly based on whether there is a draw. If there is a draw, you should go with 1, and if there is no draw, you should go with 30. In this context, the presence or absence of a draw leads to very different strategies. Matches with a clear draw call for strategy 1, as mentioned earlier. When there is no draw, it's crucial to differentiate between matches with a clear no-draw consensus and those with mixed opinions among bookmakers. In cases where one bookmaker indicates no draw, and another says there is a draw, it can be perplexing. However, these situations are relatively rare, and major bookmakers usually try to avoid such conflicts. Typically, if a big bookmaker shows no draw, other bookmakers will offer varying odds, indicating a consensus that there is no draw. This is when you can go with strategy 30. For example, today's match between West Ham and Everton falls into the 30 category, signifying a clear no-draw consensus (this is not hindsight; it's based on real data).
**3. How to Choose After Confirming the Presence of a Draw**
- This depends on the overall consensus and direction that the bookmakers provide. Confirming the presence of a draw isn't limited to one match; it may require multiple matches to arrive at a conclusion. Additionally, other factors need to be considered, such as the overall sentiment and direction of the matches. It's essential to assess whether a single 1 is justified based on the consensus or if it should be combined with other options. The judgment process is crucial here. It's not only about determining if there is a single 1, but also about assessing the clarity of the draw odds provided by the bookmakers. If the draw odds are unclear, two possibilities exist: the match may end in a draw or the draw is a false signal, and other outcomes are more likely.
Through these steps, you can identify the direction indicated by the bookmakers and compare it with the actual match outcome to make successful bets." |
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Post time 18-9-2023 08:32:24
