Is a Bitcoin Crash Imminent?

Iti9

Since Bitcoin's inception in 2009, there have been three halvings to date, each eliciting different reactions from Bitcoin. The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, the second on July 9, 2016, and the most recent on May 11, 2020.
For the purposes of this report, only the last two halvings are considered, as the adoption rate began to climb during these times. In 2016, when the halving occurred, Bitcoin's trading price was around $650, but in the weeks following the halving, the BTC price dropped by 30%, reaching a low of $460 before rebounding.
Then, during the 2020 halving, the BTC price trend was slightly below $10,000, and after the halving, the price also dropped. However, this time the decline was not as significant as in 2016, with the BTC price dropping by only about 15%.
This forms a fairly consistent trend where the Bitcoin price drops after halving, but is expected to be bullish. Therefore, if this trend continues, while halving may be advantageous for the price, the Bitcoin price could still experience a significant drop.
However, it's important to consider that the post-halving crash rate is lower compared to previous halvings. Therefore, if this trend continues this year, Bitcoin may still face a crash, but to a much lesser extent. For example, the crash after the 2020 halving was half of that after the 2016 halving, so following this trend, this crash could only be around 7-8%.
BTC Deviating from Established Halving Trends
While historical data does indicate where Bitcoin might head after a crash, it's equally important to note that digital assets have deviated from some pre-halving trends. One deviation is Bitcoin's price hitting all-time highs before the halving, which has never happened before. This may suggest that these established trends will be completely disrupted, meaning there may not be a crash after the halving.
Another deviation is that the last few weeks before the most recent two Bitcoin halvings were green. However, by 2024, due to BTC's price consistently falling, the last three weeks before the halving were in the red. This also indicates that there may be deviations in post-halving trends.
But one thing to remember is that the cryptocurrency market is always full of uncertainty, and Bitcoin has a habit of doing unexpected things.

Yamini003

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Indra55

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Jafar224

It's really hard to predict future trends, isn't it?