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A betting company simultaneously offers odds for dozens of matches. According to the principle of discrete distribution, as long as the odds are set appropriately, they can generally ensure a steady profit without loss. Therefore, in principle, a betting company does not pay much attention to the outcome of a single match in terms of profit or loss. However, maximizing profit is the ultimate goal of capitalists, so manipulating match outcomes is an inevitable means for the company. Due to their extensive experience, spanning decades to centuries, their manipulation techniques and the number of manipulated matches inevitably vary greatly, making them difficult to grasp.
First, let's address several misconceptions among bettors:
1. The Biggest Misconception:
Many believe that when there's a major upset, the bookmaker wins big money! Before explaining this issue, let's do a simple math problem. Suppose the odds for a match are 1.20:4.50:10.00, with the distribution of funds being 70%:20%:10% (these odds and fund distribution ratios can be referenced from various websites' pre-match statistics). A quick calculation reveals the profits for the bookmaker as follows: If outcome 3 occurs, the profit ratio is 16%; if outcome 1 occurs, the ratio is 10%; if outcome 0 occurs, the ratio is 0! Surprisingly, in the most typical scenario where outcome 3 happens, the bookmaker profits the most!! Some may doubt the accuracy of the fund distribution, but predicting football outcomes isn't a secret anymore. Even though the IQ of Europeans is several notches below ours (which I firmly believe), after decades of analysis, they likely understand this simple problem more deeply than we do. Therefore, this fund distribution is relatively realistic. True "upsets" cannot be determined solely by fixed odds because they are closely related to the volume of funds. Due to the volume of funds, bookmakers will manipulate the odds to attract more bets or deter them, and this, reflected in changing odds (handicaps), is easier to trace. This is one of the significant reasons why there are more experts studying Macau odds compared to European odds.
2. The Second Major Misconception:
Many believe that bookmakers control the outcome of most (or even all) matches. Recently, discussions often revolve around handicaps, and people tend to rely on news before placing bets, precisely due to this perception. While it's true that bookmakers can influence the outcome of a match without much effort, in reality, controlling a match's outcome is an extremely complex process. It requires solid personal relationships, a strong economic foundation, and sophisticated manipulation techniques. Those involved (club management, coaches, players) are carefully selected and cultivated individuals. Hence, it's not as simple as making a phone call when the time comes. It's evident that controlling the outcome of all matches is not only improbable but also highly uneconomical. In fact, whether it's odds or handicaps, the majority (>50%) align with the actual strength comparison and final results of the teams (this point hardly needs proof). Therefore, bookmakers concentrate their efforts on a few selected matches! These matches inevitably have high betting volumes and can generate huge profits for the bookmakers! As for other less significant matches, whether they result in profit or loss, it's inconsequential.
3. The Third Major Misconception:
Some believe that there are universal patterns in odds or handicaps, and as long as you follow these patterns, you can always win. In reality, the struggle between bookmakers and bettors is an eternal theme in the gambling industry, just as it is in any investment or speculation domain. Bookmakers employ various tactics to outwit the bettors, while the bettors strive to keep up with the bookmakers, hoping not to be caught in their nets, until they eventually become part of the bookmaking system themselves. In football betting, odds or handicaps are the main battleground for bookmakers and bettors, where they engage in a continuous battle of wits. It's precisely because of this constant struggle that there's only one universal rule regarding odds and handicaps: "There are no universal rules!" —or one might say, rules are constantly evolving. However, there's one principle that never changes: all the bookmaker's methods are aimed at maximizing their own profits! Don't dismiss this as a cliché; as a bettor, it should be your highest principle of analysis and consideration. Otherwise, when you think you've caught the tail of a mermaid, you've actually caught the tongue of a dinosaur! |
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Post time 22-4-2024 12:29:49