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The so-called process of reading odds, is actually the specific steps for individual analysis of a match. This is also one of the most frequently asked questions by many friends. There can be many sequences for reading odds, but here I'll just mention my personal steps.
First, we need to select the target for betting, which is the match we want to analyze. This is the first step, similar to hunting. The specific method has been discussed in detail in my collection, roughly finding the most obvious unreasonable odds; as for reasonable odds, it depends on strength, form, etc.
Second, personally, what I look at is not anything else, but the recommended picks from Macau, rather than data, odds, or odds. Why? It's actually very simple. You need to know that the recommended picks from Macau must summarize the most important background of the match. By just reading one or two simple sentences and the recommendation, you can quickly grasp the key points of the match. Not only can you quickly grasp the key points of the match, but also their attitude can serve as a breakthrough point for public psychology. Let's look at an example. For example, yesterday I got the match between Brazil and Australia. I found that the odds were already at the limit, so I decided it would be the match I would bet on in the evening. The second step, I looked at the recommended picks from Macau. The original words were like this: "In the first match, Brazil's performance was only average. However, this time against Australia, their strength should be below Croatia's. Additionally, Australia's defense is far inferior to Croatia's. It is believed that Brazil can win the match, but one should be cautious about allowing too many goals, as it could lead to a loss. Also, Australia has shown excellent attacking ability in recent matches, so it is believed that there will be many goals in the match." This passage is very useful. Even if you don't look at the data, you can find the key points of the match. It tells you that Brazil's performance in the first match was not good, and Australia's defense is not good. Brazil should be able to win, but there is concern about whether they can cover the spread. The first two sentences directly tell me that the upper odds will not be too hot, and the following sentences are about the total goals. You need to know that Australia scored 3 goals in the previous match, and now the odds are high, so it's not favorable to bet on the over. Therefore, the recommended picks from Macau directly reveal the public's psychology and the tendency of the over/under, finding the betting psychological entry point for this match. Remember this phrase: There are many factors affecting betting on a match, but often there is one factor that carries the most weight, which I call the betting psychological entry point. Everyone should learn to find this entry point. Regarding how to interpret the Macau recommendations, I will discuss it specifically in the future.
Next, let's move on to the third step. The third step is to judge the reasonableness of the Asian handicap. There is a specific method for how to judge the reasonableness of the odds, which I won't repeat here. But in order to allow everyone to flexibly apply it, let me give you an example. It's still Brazil against Australia. As you've seen in my recent article "How to judge the reasonableness of European odds", there is a method of equivalent substitution. In fact, you can also use it for Asian handicaps. Let's substitute a little here. When I looked at the odds in the morning, Brazil was giving a handicap of half a goal/two goals with low odds. At the time, I said in the group that the odds and odds for Brazil were already in place and could be supported. Why? Well, let's look at the size of the odds from different angles: during the Confederations Cup, Brazil played against Japan on neutral ground, and the handicap was half a goal with low odds. The European odds for a home win were 1.25, and Japan's strength is definitely not lower than Australia's. Now it's half a goal/two goals with low odds, and the European odds are 1.20. However, to be accurate, let's substitute a little more. It's still the Confederations Cup, but Australia played against Argentina and only received a handicap of one goal/half a goal, losing 2-4. Even if there is a gap between Argentina and Brazil, it is minimal. It is absolutely impossible for the odds to be half a goal/a goal with such a small difference in strength. Therefore, the Asian handicap can be determined to be much higher (friends can continue to substitute to confirm this example). So, in the third step, the basic conclusion is: both the European and Asian odds are much higher! Combined with the Macau recommendations, confidence in Brazil starts to build.
Moving on to the fourth step: judging public sentiment. We just talked about finding the entry point for public sentiment. How do we find it? Actually, you can think about what you think of first when you see these two teams playing. For me, it's the full-page praise of Australia I saw in the bank that day, as well as the description of Brazil's first match win and loss. Therefore, the entry point for this match should be form. So, public sentiment should be like this: Brazil is much stronger, and the public believes Australia has a high chance of losing. However, considering that the odds are only half a goal/two goals with low odds, bettors need Brazil to win by three goals to cover. Therefore, it's difficult for the upper odds to be hot. At least, there is not much investment value, but there are obvious risks. So, based on the betting psychological entry point combined with the reasonableness of the odds at this time, the judgment is that bettors are cautious about betting on the upper odds, and the upper odds will not be heavily favored. Bettors are wary of the upper odds!
The fifth step is to assess the rationality of the odds movement. Since I placed my bets in the morning yesterday and went out early, I'm not in a position to comment afterwards. But at this step, what you need to do is to grasp the cold and hot trends and the betting psychology. For example, if I judge that the upper odds are in a cautious position, then if the bookmakers show too obvious a rise in odds, we need to consider whether it's a rush to bet, because such changes in odds cater to the unstable psychology of the upper odds. Look for irrational trends and speculate on the intentions of the bookmakers based on the grasp of cold and hot trends and the size of the odds. If there are cold surprises, hot favorites, or even odds changes, then you need to see if there are any unreasonable trends. At this point, you need to quickly think about what's going on, what you should do, and what the situation might be like. Your mind needs to work quickly. For example, if there's a retreat but it's at 0.80 odds, it might be a reduction in payouts, but at 0.85 odds, it might not be. However, if it's at 0.925 odds, it might be a rush to bet, but if it reaches full odds, it might be offloading. So, when there |
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Post time 20-4-2024 11:25:15
Post time 23-4-2024 13:18:23