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When will the bottom-fishing opportunity arrive during Bitcoin's consolidation and pullback?
On March 23rd, some altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, with Ripple's XRP, the decentralized data storage platform Filecoin's FIL, and Internet Computer's ICP tokens rising 6%-7% in the past 24 hours. However, Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Aptos (APT) fell by 2%-5% during the same period.
In cryptocurrency stocks, MicroStrategy (MSTR) rose by 8%, Coinbase Global (COIN) rose by 4.9%, and CleanSpark (CLSK) closed with a slight increase, with a nearly 16% increase for the week and a total increase of over 83% since the beginning of the year. On Thursday, Riot Platforms fell by 0.8%, down 12% for the month and nearly 21% since the beginning of the year, while Marathon Digital (MARA) fell by 1.2%, down 5.2% year-to-date.
In other news, the stock price of the new spot Bitcoin ETF rose by about 1% in Thursday's trading.
"Profit-taking is more likely to continue"
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a report that JPMorgan's futures position proxy and the premium of Bitcoin futures relative to spot indicate that Bitcoin is still overbought.
The analysts said these indicators suggest that positions have only been slightly unwound so far. They stated, "Both indicators suggest that despite a significant correction in the past week, Bitcoin remains overbought. In fact, with the halving event approaching, this profit-taking is more likely to continue, especially against the backdrop of a week of adjustment but still appearing overbought."
Last week, JPMorgan analysts predicted that the price of Bitcoin could fall to around $42,000 after halving, citing reduced miner rewards and rising production costs.
So far, the significant outflow of funds recorded by Grayscale GBTC seems to be exacerbating bearish sentiment, with GBTC's divestment exceeding the increase in holdings of other new Bitcoin ETF issuers. Since converting to a spot Bitcoin ETF on January 11th, GBTC's Bitcoin holdings have fallen by over 40%, and the net outflow from major ETF issuers has approached $749 million since the beginning of this week.
However, Bloomberg's Chief ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas denied the impact of Grayscale outflows on Bitcoin price trends, noting that there is no direct correlation between ETF flows and BTC price performance.
Bernstein raises Bitcoin year-end price target to $90,000
According to a Bernstein research report, the company has raised its expected target price for Bitcoin from $80,000 to $90,000 by the end of this year.
Based on the rise in Bitcoin and the positive response to the new spot Bitcoin ETF, the company also raised its outlook for cryptocurrency mining stocks.
Bernstein raised CleanSpark's target stock price from $14.20 to $30 and maintained an outperform rating; lowered Riot Platforms' target stock price from $22.50 to $22 and gave the stock an outperform rating against the market; and raised Marathon Digital's (MARA) target price from $14.30 to $23.
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika said, "With the new Bitcoin bull market cycle, strong ETF inflows, positive miner capacity expansion, and record miner dollar revenue, we continue to find Bitcoin miners attractive to stock investors seeking exposure to the crypto cycle."
"Buy the dip opportunity"
Bernstein analysts said in this week's report that Bitcoin recently fell from a historical high above $73,000 to below $10,000, briefly falling below $63,000, representing a temporary "buy the dip opportunity" before halving. They stated, "We expect the market to consolidate before halving, and then expect the overall bull market to continue."
Some analysts believe that Bitcoin may reset the "sustainability of the bull market" through deeper declines. An anonymous cryptocurrency trader Jelle analyzed on the X platform that unless BTC holds the $65,300 level, the correction will not end, and the price may continue to consolidate within the current range for a while, needing to reclaim the $69,000 price level (the peak of the 2021 market cycle) to reignite the upward trend to higher prices. |
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