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Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced deeper pullbacks compared to Solana. Bulls in SOL may have to wait for sentiment to shift back in their favor before going long again.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have seen some retracement from their earlier gains this month. Ahead of the halving, we might witness short-term "sell-off event" type declines before bulls regroup once again.
On the other hand, Solana (SOL) has maintained its bullish momentum, albeit with some slowing over the past ten days. AMBCrypto evaluated their price charts to understand the next steps in price action.
Bulls in Bitcoin may have to wait for more retracement
BTC's daily market structure is bullish. A dip below $505,000 would signal a bearish reversal, while a move above $737,000 would indicate a continuation of the bull market. At the time of writing, the Fibonacci retracement levels at $594,000 and $555,000 are crucial support levels.
AMBCrypto anticipates a test of one of these levels before the upward trend resumes to look for liquidity. This retest might occur rapidly in the form of a liquidation cascade or could be a prolonged move.
The RSI shows neutral momentum, with buyers recently losing momentum. OBV also approached support levels in early March. Taken together, this suggests buyers may struggle to keep the price above $60,000.
Research into liquidation levels indicates where BTC might be attracted next. The psychological level of $50,000 is bright on the heatmap, but this downward move is unlikely based on existing evidence.
Closer to current market prices, levels at $608,000, $572,000, and $550,000 are easier targets for bears to achieve. Clearing these liquidity pockets may pave the way for Bitcoin to truly recover its upward trend.
Ethereum underwent a perfect retest but faces rejection nonetheless
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has tested the 78.6% retracement level based on the recent bounce. A strong and rapid bullish reaction pushed the price to $3,580 after dropping to $3,160.
However, this is not enough, as bulls face rejection below $3,600. OBV also dropped to local highs on February 21, when the $3,000 mark was a resistance area.
RSI has been below the neutral 50 for the past ten days, indicating strong bearish momentum. Considering these indicators and price trends, the retracement may not be over yet. We might see ETH drop back to $3,160 or lower again.
Liquidity at $3,000 is significant, and the price may be tested soon.
On-chain indicators are slightly encouraging. The MVRV ratio remains positive, indicating profits for holders. Daily active addresses have been on an upward trend since February 10.
Dormant circulation indicators have successfully marked local highs in recent months. The surge in this indicator may also indicate that panic selling is nearing its bottom. Therefore, swing traders hope to see a significant drop in prices to the key demand area highlighted earlier.
At the same time, a surge in dormant circulation could signal a local bottom and a good buying opportunity.
Is Solana headed to $130 or $260 next?
While BTC and ETH experienced significant pullbacks, SOL maintained its upward trajectory. It has yet to retrace 50% from the previous swing low. Despite bulls failing to break the psychological $200 mark, this still indicates strength in the bull camp.
OBV remains significantly higher than its resistance level, further reinforcing this. Meanwhile, RSI continues to move above the neutral 50, indicating bullish momentum dominance.
If Bitcoin drops below $60,000, support levels at $106.9 and $128.8 may be retested. However, these indicators do not suggest such a deep retracement in the coming days.
Spot CVD has been consolidating over the past two days but was on an upward trend earlier. As prices remained below $200 over the past week, spot demand slowed alongside open interest.
This suggests confidence in the bull market is not strong, but it also indicates that selling pressure in the spot market is not significant. If sentiment behind Bitcoin could also turn optimistic, bulls might see a recovery. |
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Post time 3-4-2024 00:02:32
